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Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

Jun 12, 1:39 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

28086561

OptionProbability

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Gene Editing Therapies

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Bioprinting

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

a molecule derived using Alphafold (current or successor models) achieves over $1B of commercial retail sales

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

Human-level AGI

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Space-Based Manufacturing

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Seafloor Mining Robots

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

Quantum Computing Applications

Graphene semiconductor electronics

ASI

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Lunar Bases

Moon base

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

Britain finishes HS2

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Photonic computing

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

Commercial asteroid mining

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Datacenters in space

Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.

Joywire

Commercial fusion power

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Fast travel across the globe

AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

Nuclear powered cargo ships

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

Mars Base

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Human Mind Uploading

Changing the height of an adult at will

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Orbital Habitats

Fusion Drives

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Space-to-Earth power stations

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Human sex change at chromosome level

Changing a person's race at will

Von Neumann Probe

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Vacuum Airships

Time travel to the future

Commercial cold fusion

Space Elevator

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Antimatter bombs

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Faster then Light Propulsion

Time travel to the past

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.17%chance

5916534

OptionVotes

YES

2496

401

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.27%chance

596496

OptionVotes

YES

2269

441

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.96%chance

254081

OptionVotes

YES

1778

563

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Aug 23, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.84%chance

172242

OptionVotes

YES

2821

354

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Aug 23, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.92%chance

101804

OptionVotes

YES

2578

388

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Dec 16, 11:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

25779

OptionVotes

YES

1072

968

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.8%chance

13761

OptionVotes

YES

1256

319

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.32%chance

23755

OptionVotes

YES

1094

621

Will humanity produce it’s first in lab net positive fusion energy breakthrough by end 2028 ?

Nov 21, 7:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.01%chance

16631

OptionVotes

YES

1162

800

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

1107

954

Will "“Flaky breakthroughs” pervade coaching — but ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 1:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19.8%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

1060

699

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Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Will humanity produce it’s first in lab net positive fusion energy breakthrough by end 2028 ?

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Will "“Flaky breakthroughs” pervade coaching — but ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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