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Top stories

Battlefield 6 Beta Breaks Steam Record, Blocks 330,000 Cheating Attempts

Battlefield 6 Beta Breaks Steam Record, Blocks 330,000 Cheating Attempts

Authors

31

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Breakthrough

Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.71%chance

12821976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2895

796

Will there be a breakthrough communicating with animals and AI in 2025

Jan 15, 3:29 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

13.06%chance

305419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2580

388

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.71%chance

203624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1517

659

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Mar 20, 1:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.81%chance

172040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

400

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Aug 23, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.74%chance

141715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2357

424

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.65%chance

131358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

916

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Aug 23, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.82%chance

81279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2053

487

Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning?

Aug 27, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.54%chance

26829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

960

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.32%chance

22745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

647

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.32%chance

13711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

382

Will humanity produce it’s first in lab net positive fusion energy breakthrough by end 2028 ?

Nov 21, 7:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.01%chance

16631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

800

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Dec 16, 11:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.09%chance

22459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

981

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