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Top stories

Battlefield 6 Beta Breaks Steam Record, Blocks 330,000 Cheating Attempts

Battlefield 6 Beta Breaks Steam Record, Blocks 330,000 Cheating Attempts

Authors

31

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Breakthrough

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.86%chance

244343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

736

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.9%chance

234031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

579

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.84%chance

272687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

866

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Aug 23, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.09%chance

152215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2857

350

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Aug 23, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.7%chance

91779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2553

392

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.8%chance

13761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

319

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.32%chance

22745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

647

Will humanity produce it’s first in lab net positive fusion energy breakthrough by end 2028 ?

Nov 21, 7:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.01%chance

16631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

800

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Dec 16, 11:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.09%chance

22459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

981

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

954

Will "“Flaky breakthroughs” pervade coaching — but ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 1:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19.8%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

699

Will "Your LLM-assisted scientific breakthrough pro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 3, 2:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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