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OptionProbability
US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026
US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026
Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.
US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).
Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026
US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.
Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026
Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026
Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026
FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026
Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026
Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027
A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.
Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027
More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026
US activates military draft by December 31, 2026
Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.
Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.
Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026
Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026
US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026
US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)
US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)
The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026
US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
39
25
16
16
14
14
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
6
6
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Will Kyle Schwarber hit 30+ home runs?
Will Junior Caminero hit 30+ home runs?
Will Byron Buxton hit 20+ home runs?
Will Pete Alonso hit 20+ home runs?
Will Juan Soto hit 20+ home runs?
Will Aaron Judge hit 10+ home runs?
Will Brent Rooker hit 10+ home runs?
Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 10+ home runs?
Will Bryce Harper hit 10+ home runs?
Will Bryce Harper hit 20+ home runs?
Will Cal Raleigh hit 10+ home runs?
Will Gunnar Henderson hit 10+ home runs?
Will Jackson Chourio hit 10+ home runs?
Will Yordan Alvarez hit 10+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 10+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 20+ home runs?
Will Pete Alonso hit 10+ home runs?
Will Brandon Lowe hit 10+ home runs?
Will Jake Bauers hit 10+ home runs?
Will Ryan O'Hearn hit 10+ home runs?
Will Francisco Alvarez hit 10+ home runs?
Will Munetaka Murakami hit 10+ home runs?
Will Jordan Walker hit 20+ home runs?
Will Yordan Alvarez hit 30+ home runs?
Will Matt Olson hit 30+ home runs?
Will any player hit 40+ home runs?
Will Byron Buxton hit 30+ home runs?
Will Jacob Young hit 10+ home runs?
Will Aaron Judge hit 20+ home runs?
Will any player hit 50+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 30+ home runs?
Will Kyle Schwarber hit 40+ home runs?
Will Munetaka Murakami hit 30+ home runs?
Will Pete Alonso hit 30+ home runs?
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 10+ home runs?
Will Brady House hit 10+ home runs?
Will Nick Kurtz hit 30+ home runs?
Will Eugenio Suárez hit 20+ home runs?
Will Kyle Schwarber hit 50+ home runs?
Will Junior Caminero hit 40+ home runs?
Will Cal Raleigh hit 20+ home runs?
Will Juan Soto hit 30+ home runs?
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 10+ home runs?
Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 20+ home runs?
Will Ben Rice hit 40+ home runs?
Will Yordan Alvarez hit 40+ home runs?
Will Aaron Judge hit 30+ home runs?
Will Gunnar Henderson hit 30+ home runs?
Will Bryce Harper hit 30+ home runs?
Will Colson Montgomery hit 40+ home runs?
Will Yordan Alvarez hit 50+ home runs?
Will Yordan Alvarez hit 60+ home runs?
Will Ben Rice hit 50+ home runs?
Will Ben Rice hit 60+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 40+ home runs?
Will Byron Buxton hit 40+ home runs?
Will Hunter Goodman hit 60+ home runs?
Will Julio Rodriguez hit 30+ home runs?
Will any player hit 60+ home runs?
Will Joey Wiemer hit 10+ home runs?
Will Jake Baldwin hit 30+ home runs?
Will Hunter Goodman hit 50+ home runs?
Will Hunter Goodman hit 40+ home runs?
Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 30+ home runs?
Will Matt Olson hit 40+ home runs?
Will Cal Raleigh hit 30+ home runs?
Will Brandon Lowe hit 40+ home runs?
Will Sal Frelick hit 10+ home runs?
Will Christian Walker hit 40+ home runs?
Will Nick Kurtz hit 40+ home runs?
Will Brent Rooker hit 30+ home runs?
Will James Wood hit 40+ home runs?
Will Elly De La Cruz hit 40+ home runs?
Will Eugenio Suárez hit 30+ home runs?
Will Munetaka Murakami hit 40+ home runs?
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 30+ home runs?
Will Shea Langeliers hit 40+ home runs?
Will Mike Trout hit 40+ home runs?
Will Pete Alonso hit 50+ home runs?
Will Jake Bauers hit 30+ home runs?
Will Pete Alonso hit 40+ home runs?
Will Nick Kurtz hit 50+ home runs?
Will Mickey Moniak hit 40+ home runs?
Will Jackson Chourio hit 30+ home runs?
Will Junior Caminero hit 50+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 50+ home runs?
Will Munetaka Murakami hit 50+ home runs?
Will Cal Raleigh hit 40+ home runs?
Will Byron Buxton hit 50+ home runs?
Will Eugenio Suárez hit 40+ home runs?
Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 40+ home runs?
Will Brent Rooker hit 40+ home runs?
Will Eugenio Suárez hit 50+ home runs?
Will any player hit 70+ home runs?
Will Cal Raleigh hit 50+ home runs?
Will Aaron Judge hit 40+ home runs?
Will Junior Caminero hit 60+ home runs?
Will Brady House hit 30+ home runs?
Will Aaron Judge hit 50+ home runs?
Will Pete Alonso hit 60+ home runs?
Will Byron Buxton hit 60+ home runs?
Will Ryan O'Hearn hit 60+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 60+ home runs?
Will Munetaka Murakami hit 60+ home runs?
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 40+ home runs?
Will Francisco Alvarez hit 40+ home runs?
Will Kyle Schwarber hit 60+ home runs?
Will Eugenio Suárez hit 60+ home runs?
Will Nick Kurtz hit 60+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 70+ home runs?
Will Brady House hit 40+ home runs?
Will Cal Raleigh hit 60+ home runs?
Will Aaron Judge hit 60+ home runs?
Will Anthony Volpe hit 40+ home runs?
Will Eugenio Suárez hit 70+ home runs?
Will Aaron Judge hit 70+ home runs?
Will any player hit 80+ home runs?
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 80+ home runs?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
94
94
93
90
81
79
75
75
75
69
63
63
62
61
61
59
59
58
55
53
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
48
46
45
45
45
45
45
44
41
41
40
39
39
39
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
33
31
31
30
29
29
27
26
24
24
23
21
17
16
14
13
13
12
12
10
9
7
7
7
7
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1809
553
OptionProbability
March 2026
April 2026
September 2026
October 2026
August 2026
December 2026
November 2026
July 2026
May 2026
June 2026
100
99
66
45
33
23
19
12
1
1
OptionProbability
17th or better
15th or better
13th or better
11th or better
10th or better
9th or better
8th or better
7th or better
6th or better
5th or better
3rd or better
1st
90
86
77
66
44
39
37
31
13
8
4
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1512
661
OptionProbability
Oil blockade, regime stays
Oil blockade, regime changes
No oil blockade, regime changes
No oil blockade, regime stays
90
7
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1031
884
OptionProbability
Patrick Stewart
Brent Spiner
Denise Crosby
Michael Dorn
LeVar Burton
Jonathan Frakes
Gates McFadden
Marina Sirtis
Wil Wheaton
32
22
16
8
5
5
5
5
3
OptionProbability
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
John Braun
Brent Hennrich
Antony Barran
Other
71
17
4
4
4
OptionProbability
[n/a]
Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez
Brent Hennrich
[n/a]
Troy Rasband
72
72
66
63
63
OptionProbability
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Austill Hill OUT FINISH Carson Kvapil?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Sheldon Creed OUT FINISH Sammy Smith?
06/13 (Pocono) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
06/20 (Coronado) - Will Sheldon Creed OUT FINISH Austin Jones?
06/27 (Sonoma) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
07/03 (Chicagoland) - Will Carson Kvapil OUT FINISH Corey Day?
11/07 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
06/20 (Coronado) - Will Brandon Jones OUT FINISH William Byron?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Jesse Love OUT FINISH Justin Allgaier?
05/30 (Nashville) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
06/20 (Coronado) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
07/03 (Chicagoland) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
07/03 (Chicagoland) - Will Connor Zilisch OUT FINISH Brent Crews?
07/03 (Chicagoland) - Will Parker Retrzlaff OUT FINISH Jesse Love?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0