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University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

1 year ago

Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?

Jan 28, 7:50 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

233450

OptionProbability

Manifold

Nate Silver

Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?

Feb 4, 3:17 AMJan 1, 3:13 AM

78.54%chance

192361

OptionVotes

YES

3305

2189

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

21.79%chance

102103

OptionVotes

YES

1895

528

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Jul 4, 4:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161160

OptionProbability

The same

Better

Worse

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Mar 18, 3:19 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

3351

OptionProbability

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Brier Fox Forecasts Stock

Apr 23, 2:56 AM

456

OptionProbability

YES

112

Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?

Dec 29, 7:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

How far ahead of the registry model will the best entry on ReadoutBench Round 1 be?

Nov 2, 10:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

No entry beats the registry model

Ahead by less than 0.01 Brier

Ahead by 0.01–0.02

Ahead by more than 0.02

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Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?

Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Brier Fox Forecasts Stock

Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?

How far ahead of the registry model will the best entry on ReadoutBench Round 1 be?

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