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OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War Ends in June
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
A second cease-fire is announced
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Iran launches a cruise missile
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
War ends in July
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Iranian government dissolves
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
Iran regime change
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
Total casualties exceed 10,000
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
97
94
77
66
39
28
25
20
19
17
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
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8
8
8
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7
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5
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4
4
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4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3662
273
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Donald Trump remains President of USA
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Sudanese Civil War ends
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Any country leaves NATO
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
USA leaves NATO
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
95
89
83
81
75
72
71
68
67
67
63
62
60
59
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56
54
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50
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23
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22
19
19
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16
15
15
15
14
13
13
12
12
9
8
7
7
6
5
5
4
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
3560
281
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1476
705
OptionVotes
YES
NO
200
82
OptionVotes
NO
YES
262
121
OptionVotes
YES
NO
341
29
OptionProbability
None
Power Broker
President
Top Advisor
Head of the Cabinet
Cabinet Member
30
28
17
12
6
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
135
93
OptionVotes
YES
NO
90
55