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Prediction markets for Browser Use

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

25%chance

2720620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

700

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]

May 31, 2:08 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

8.98%chance

209509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3184

314

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will Zvi use Atlas as primary browser by EOY 2025?

Oct 21, 5:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.13%chance

243774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4298

233

Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?

Dec 28, 6:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

22.22%chance

292037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

699

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

19.01%chance

151129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

581

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

38.11%chance

191064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

520

Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)

Dec 2, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.88%chance

1550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

736

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

When will Teslas no longer be able to use the web browser whilst driving?

Apr 27, 8:39 PMJan 5, 7:59 AM

6166

OptionProbability

2024-2026

2026-2028

2030-2032

2028-2030

2032-2034

2034-2036

2036-2038

2038-2040

2040-2042

2042-2044

2044-2046

2046-2048

2048-2050

2050-2052

2052-2054

2054-2056

2056-2058

2058-2060

2060-2062

2062-2064

2064-2066

2066-2068

2068-2070

2070-2072

2072-2074

2074-2076

2076-2078

2078-2080

2080-2082

2082-2084

2084-2086

2086-2088

2088-2090

2090-2092

2092-2094

2094-2096

2096-2098

2098-2100

2100-2102

39

33

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Fix Browser Navigation when Using Certain Tabs

Nov 23, 8:56 PM

00

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