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Prediction markets for Budget 2024

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Oct 2, 1:12 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.53%chance

5015948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1682

474

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Mar 9, 9:51 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

30%chance

6410376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1730

1290

If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?

Mar 9, 9:37 PMNov 2, 7:59 AM

2.41%chance

287822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7349

337

Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?

Jan 3, 3:19 AMOct 1, 11:59 PM

60.18%chance

655757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

512

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

When will the LAX People Mover Open

Mar 27, 3:20 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

122196

OptionProbability

Before January 2027

Before October 2026

Before October 2025

Before January 2026

Before April 2026

Before July 2026

57

5

0

0

0

0

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

Dec 17, 4:11 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

33.75%chance

91338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

1278

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.27%chance

6271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

864

Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMOct 1, 11:59 PM

61.83%chance

7134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

73

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2024?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

79.04%chance

1100

OptionProbability

NO

YES

200

35

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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