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Prediction markets for Budget 2026

Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 5:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.3%chance

16742960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8726

115

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.27%chance

1517376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

546

Will the UK introduce a wealth tax by end of 2025?

Jul 8, 11:29 AMDec 18, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

9711012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7062

2009

DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?

Feb 4, 6:07 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

4.32%chance

3710090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4708

212

Will Artemis III launch before 2027?

Mar 12, 6:34 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

2%chance

134731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5334

737

Will a movie with a budget >$500M be released by 2026?

Jan 23, 3:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.68%chance

283078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

749

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will there be a decent-budget biopic about Richard Feynman to 2026 end

Sep 29, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.2%chance

332080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

654

Will any nation's military budget be used to train an AI system that consistently beats GPT-4's SAT scores by 2026?

Jun 20, 5:19 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.22%chance

10195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 exceed 8.9 billion?

May 5, 5:14 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

23.58%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Will Golden Gate Park charge for street parking by 2026-06-30?

Feb 24, 12:01 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

371

OptionProbability

No metered parking happens before 2026-06-30

2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31

2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30

2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31

Before 2025-09-30

41

19

19

12

8

EPA budget for water quality programs cut by ≥10% in FY2026 budget

Nov 22, 3:30 PMSep 30, 12:00 AM

51.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

976

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