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Prediction markets for Build 2024

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will The Project be an issue in the 2028 election?

Jun 9, 7:14 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

36.95%chance

321691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

766

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.9%chance

151455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

766

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

In what year will the Jeddah Tower be open to the public?

Apr 23, 3:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6873

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2031

Demolished

2028

Other

2027

33

27

16

11

9

3

2

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

[Carlini questions] Value of most valuable "AI Lab" in billion USD in 2027

Mar 24, 1:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8513

OptionProbability

1,000 - 9,999

500 - 999

100 - 499

50 - 99

0 - 49

10,000 or above

64

22

9

2

1

1

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Will Heathrow increase monthly air transport movements from 40,000 to 50,000 before 2030?

Oct 11, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.47%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?

Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

54.75%chance

336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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