Build Code News

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

YES

3838

261

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

[Carlini questions] Most improvements in best AI systems direct result of the prior generation of AI systems

Mar 24, 2:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

370

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2027

Should most absolute/categorical rules be replaced with pigouvian taxes?

Apr 16, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

127

Will a standardized category theory language for ML models emerge by end of 2025?

Apr 9, 12:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3.12%chance

622

OptionVotes

YES

101

Odd Lots Predictions

Jun 27, 12:17 PMJan 2, 1:03 PM

110

OptionProbability

NYC adopts single-stair building code before 2-Jan-2033

Joe believes in the term premium before 1 July 2032

Podcast guest to discuss livestock gender selection tech before 28 June 2029

Podcast guest to talk about Buy Now Pay Later in 2025

How should I plan what college to attend? (Current high schooler, 100M+ bounty)

Jan 4, 6:53 AM

How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.

Jan 6, 3:11 PM

190

Build Code News

Prediction markets for Build Code

Prediction markets for Build Code

Prediction markets for Build Code

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

[Carlini questions] Most improvements in best AI systems direct result of the prior generation of AI systems

Should most absolute/categorical rules be replaced with pigouvian taxes?

Will a standardized category theory language for ML models emerge by end of 2025?

Odd Lots Predictions

How should I plan what college to attend? (Current high schooler, 100M+ bounty)

How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.

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