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Prediction markets for Build Program

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

22.07%chance

9340394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

532

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will The Project be an issue in the 2028 election?

Jun 9, 7:14 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

36.95%chance

321691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

766

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

880

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Mar 16, 1:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.52%chance

14329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

82

Will the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare

Dec 24, 2:37 AMDec 24, 2:34 AM

20%chance

13239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

Will Embraer announce a program to build a competitor for the 737/A320 in the next 5 years?

Nov 10, 11:08 AMNov 17, 9:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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