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Prediction markets for Build Program

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.48%chance

205553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10072

2801

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will The Project be an issue in the 2028 election?

Jun 9, 7:14 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

36.95%chance

321691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

766

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

35

28

26

4

3

2

2

1

Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 10, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.45%chance

201485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

964

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

191156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

933

Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 11, 10:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

14869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

904

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

880

Will Embraer announce a program to build a competitor for the 737/A320 in the next 5 years?

Nov 10, 11:08 AMNov 17, 9:59 PM

31%chance

1492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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