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Prediction markets for Business Insider

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

55.58%chance

656578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

762

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

15%chance

253022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

How many cigars (and cigarillos) will I smoke in total during the month of November 2026?

Nov 1, 5:52 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

5268

OptionProbability

71 - 90

51 - 70

31 - 50

0 - 30

91 - 200

46

26

18

5

4

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

12155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

90

I make a coin-pusher game?

Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030

Aug 5, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.3%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Aug 5, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.9%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028?

Jan 10, 2:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.08%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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