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Prediction markets for by Profit and Loss

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.26%chance

321858480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6979

3610

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.69%chance

337103019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5028

3694

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Which of these movies will make the biggest loss at the box office (or at least the least profit)?

Jan 6, 5:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71047

OptionProbability

Argylle

Kraven the Hunter

Madame Web

Thunderbolts

Lisa Frankenstein

The Beekeeper

40

37

19

1

1

1

Will @spiderduckpig profit growth rate be linear, exponential, or logarithmic

Apr 24, 10:41 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

13637

OptionProbability

Logarithmic

Linear

Exponential

Other

61

38

1

0

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.71%chance

20567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

233

Will ChatGPT make a profit after all markets have resolved?

Nov 25, 4:48 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

35.94%chance

7377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

749

Will Anthropic report a net profit for a next phase of Project Vend or its successor before 2026?

Jun 27, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.52%chance

494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

My temporary retirement (coinflip market)

Nov 19, 2:08 AMJan 2, 2:03 AM

50%chance

552

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

1210

[SOLVED] Botlab lost 10,000 mana yesterday, can you point to where the loss came from?

Oct 20, 2:44 PM

00

Pity Mana [SEE DESC]

Dec 4, 3:50 AM

00

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