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Prediction markets for by Profit and Loss

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.28%chance

344879198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4502

3083

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4159

4150

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.15%chance

8314198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6271

1868

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Mar 4, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.14%chance

204775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2571

389

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will Trump eliminate taxes on gambling winnings?

Dec 11, 6:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

19.62%chance

91232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2024

494

Will I become profitable in trading before December 31, 2026?

Mar 26, 1:59 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6%chance

5800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

39

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.28%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?

Mar 31, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.33%chance

18540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

5

Will manifold make perps on the profit of any trader on manifold before 2028?

Sep 26, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

12432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Anthropic be profitable in 2028?

May 21, 1:36 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

65.04%chance

13409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

321

181

If AI whipes humanity out after 2028: In which year?

Nov 5, 1:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

2031

2029

2030

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043-2047

Other

15

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

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