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Top stories

JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for by

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.13%chance

2452006836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3780

1384

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

41.1%chance

21661928569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5194

3628

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1601087653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

83.46%chance

401888120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

224889

44275

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.86%chance

983744074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10719

9239

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.3%chance

500718759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16246

14400

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4007

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.39%chance

297534365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5410

4066

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

831515860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58238

10505

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48%chance

254212390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1260

987

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.9%chance

19242525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10424

9668

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

14926583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

869

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