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Top stories

JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for by

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.4%chance

2512022460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2782

1521

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45.63%chance

21942002791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4736

3979

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.6%chance

988744286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10662

9287

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.04%chance

503720483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

14198

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.46%chance

630671922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5352

4554

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

835518679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58873

10436

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

96.55%chance

58498722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

554761

19785

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.68%chance

293279439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1812

597

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.55%chance

12799163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2230

585

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

28.08%chance

7774340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

951

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.82%chance

9747585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4156

1084

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10568

9573

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