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Top stories

JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft

Authors

5

3 days ago

Prediction markets for by

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

17.63%chance

2051572892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

1608

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57%chance

19231445284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4997

3766

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.54%chance

465679880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17813

9130

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34977

14290

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.1%chance

165276848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148529

67511

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56.45%chance

178213530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6018

3103

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

224184286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

940

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.92%chance

9292170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91673

37189

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

25%chance

6662788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

907

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?

Aug 11, 9:50 AMDec 15, 11:59 PM

48.02%chance

3961524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104046

96111

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

15%chance

13758456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1409

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