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Prediction markets for Calendar

Will Djokovic get the "Calendar Slam" before he retires?

Sep 11, 3:21 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

1%chance

111801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

53

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

Oct 18, 7:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.84%chance

71280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3612

2144

In what calendar year will BCCI first allow (active) Indian players to play in foreign T20 cricket leagues?

Jan 10, 5:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91273

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2028

2026

2027

2028

2024

2025

37

24

22

15

1

1

Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?

Feb 13, 8:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.61%chance

231210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1487

910

In the year 4000 CE, what will be the starting date for the most commonly used calendar?

Mar 25, 9:53 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

171210

OptionProbability

1 CE (same as our calendar)

A date before 1 CE.

A date after 2100

A date in the 21st century

A date between 1 CE and 1000 CE

A date between 1001 CE and 2000 CE

49

18

14

13

3

3

Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?

Mar 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.29%chance

6677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

628

Will we replace the calendar by end of 2040?

Jun 29, 9:20 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

10.8%chance

17549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

962

# of New Glenn launches in 2030 calendar year

Nov 29, 10:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11360

OptionProbability

10-19

5 - 9

0 - 4

20-39

40-79

80-159

160+

28

26

18

13

7

5

3

Will we replace the calendar by end of 2080?

Jun 29, 9:20 AMDec 31, 7:01 PM

14.12%chance

10241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

947

Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?

Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.75%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

1425

Will fewer than 100 million babies be born worldwide in any calendar year before 2040?

Feb 25, 4:36 PMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

44.86%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

111

Will Taiwan abandon the use of the ROC/Minguo Calendar for all official uses before 2040?

Jun 29, 10:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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