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Prediction markets for Calendar Year

Will NVDA net income be higher than $70B for calendar year 2025?

May 23, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97.76%chance

157036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6604

151

Will Tesla deliver over 2 million vehicles in the calendar year 2025?

Feb 29, 3:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.05%chance

193684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3321

1

Which of the following retail commerce stocks will perform the best in calendar year 2025?

Jan 9, 7:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52550

OptionProbability

Shopify (SHOP)

Walmart (WMT)

Costco (COST)

Amazon (AMZN)

Target (TGT)

91

4

3

2

2

At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?

Mar 7, 3:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.75%chance

192229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2507

348

Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?

Feb 13, 8:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.61%chance

231210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1487

910

In what calendar year will BCCI first allow (active) Indian players to play in foreign T20 cricket leagues?

Jan 10, 5:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6601

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2028

2026

2027

2028

2025

2024

31

25

19

13

8

3

Will Polymarket's daily trading volume reach or exceed $200 million at any point during the calendar year 2025?

Oct 19, 1:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4.84%chance

10535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

23

# of New Glenn launches in 2030 calendar year

Nov 29, 10:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10355

OptionProbability

5 - 9

10-19

0 - 4

20-39

40-79

80-159

160+

30

26

17

12

7

5

3

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.78%chance

13278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

331

161

Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?

Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.66%chance

9181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1490

1488

When will I get a cat? (Within the next 3 calendar years)

Oct 27, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

370

OptionProbability

You Don't Get A Cat.

2024

2025

2026

2023

30

21

21

21

6

Will fewer than 100 million babies be born worldwide in any calendar year before 2040?

Feb 25, 4:36 PMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

44.86%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

111

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