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Prediction markets for Calendar Year

In what calendar year will BCCI first allow (active) Indian players to play in foreign T20 cricket leagues?

Jan 10, 5:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91273

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2028

2026

2027

2028

2024

2025

37

24

22

15

1

1

Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?

Feb 13, 8:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.61%chance

231210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1487

910

In the year 4000 CE, what will be the starting date for the most commonly used calendar?

Mar 25, 9:53 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

171210

OptionProbability

1 CE (same as our calendar)

A date before 1 CE.

A date after 2100

A date in the 21st century

A date between 1 CE and 1000 CE

A date between 1001 CE and 2000 CE

49

18

14

13

3

3

Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?

Mar 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.02%chance

7841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1527

655

US inflation rate for the top calendar year before 2050?

Aug 22, 11:37 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

9741

OptionProbability

[6,10)

[10,20)

[3,6)

Under 3%

[20-40)

Over 40%

37

25

22

7

5

3

How many players will lose Tontine within the calendar year 2026?

Jan 31, 1:20 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

1445

OptionProbability

30 ~ 35

24 ~ 29

12 ~ 23

36 ~ 41

42 ~ 49

50 ~ 72

73 ~ 99

0 ~ 11

>= 100

25

18

9

9

8

8

8

7

7

# of New Glenn launches in 2030 calendar year

Nov 29, 10:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11360

OptionProbability

10-19

5 - 9

0 - 4

20-39

40-79

80-159

160+

28

26

18

13

7

5

3

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

70.1%chance

17324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

192

Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?

Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.75%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

1425

Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average end the calendar year 2026 above $50,000

Mar 6, 6:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.26%chance

6126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

When will I get a cat? (Within the next 3 calendar years)

Oct 27, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

490

OptionProbability

You Don't Get A Cat.

2024

2025

2026

2023

50

15

15

15

5

Will fewer than 100 million babies be born worldwide in any calendar year before 2040?

Feb 25, 4:36 PMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

44.86%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

111

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