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Prediction markets for Calendar Year

Will Tesla deliver over 2 million vehicles in the calendar year 2025?

Feb 29, 3:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

193426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

6

Which of the following will have the highest market cap to finish calendar year 2025?

Jan 8, 3:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73034

OptionProbability

NVDA stock ($3.51T as of 1/8/2025)

MSFT stock ($3.17T as of 1/8/2025)

Global Crypto Market ($3.53T as of 1/7/2025)

AAPL stock ($3.64T as of 1/8/2025)

37

27

23

13

Will NVDA net income be higher than $70B for calendar year 2025?

May 23, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.8%chance

131722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1418

705

Which of the FAANG stocks will have the best calendar year performance in 2025?

Jan 8, 3:52 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

121686

OptionProbability

Meta (META)

Netflix (NFLX)

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Amazon (AMZN)

Apple (AAPL)

30

22

21

14

13

Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?

Feb 13, 8:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.61%chance

231210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1487

910

At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?

Mar 7, 3:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.99%chance

14674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

953

In what calendar year will BCCI first allow (active) Indian players to play in foreign T20 cricket leagues?

Jan 10, 5:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5551

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2028

2026

2027

2025

2028

2024

29

23

18

15

12

3

# of New Glenn launches in 2030 calendar year

Nov 29, 10:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7243

OptionProbability

20-39

0 - 4

5 - 9

10-19

40-79

80-159

160+

25

16

16

14

13

10

6

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.89%chance

10183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

164

Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?

Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.66%chance

9181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1490

1488

When will I get a cat? (Within the next 3 calendar years)

Oct 27, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

370

OptionProbability

You Don't Get A Cat.

2024

2025

2026

2023

30

21

21

21

6

Will fewer than 100 million babies be born worldwide in any calendar year before 2040?

Feb 25, 4:36 PMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

44.86%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

111

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