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Prediction markets for California

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District

Oct 17, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43126130

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Saikat Chakrabarti

Nancy Pelosi

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Jingchao Xiong

Darren Helton

54

25

15

2

2

1

1

0

0

Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

Nov 15, 1:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

5.38%chance

58115754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35321

5489

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

221101130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1193

461

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4372591

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

33

33

19

15

Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?

Jul 4, 12:46 AMJul 11, 8:59 PM

8659221

OptionProbability

Eric Swalwell

Matt Mahan

Tom Steyer

Katie Porter

Other

Xavier Becerra

Antonio Villaraigosa

Steve Hilton

Eleni Kounalakis

Toni Atkins

Tony Thurmond

Betty Yee

Rob Bonta

Rick Caruso

Kamala Harris

Ethan Agarwal

Alex Padilla

Jon Slavet

Jesse Perez

Michael L. Younger

Ian Calderon

42

26

7

5

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?

Nov 14, 7:36 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

89.86%chance

4510231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2977

336

Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?

Jan 29, 6:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

105900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

870

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

53.8%chance

94548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10795

9269

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4842

207

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2772

2450

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 14th Congressional District

Jan 9, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Matt Ortega

Abrar Qadir

Aisha Wahab

Other

25

25

25

25

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 2nd State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Damon Connolly

James Gore

Natalie Rogers

Other

25

25

25

25

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