California News

Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

Nov 15, 1:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

1%chance

791186384

OptionVotes

YES

125148

3456

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

428270397

OptionVotes

YES

1217

409

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District

Oct 17, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53179438

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Nancy Pelosi

Saikat Chakrabarti

Jingchao Xiong

Darren Helton

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47106751

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will Jamie Joyce win the 2026 12th California Congressional district race?

Jun 18, 9:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

2.45%chance

1516105

OptionVotes

YES

7292

427

California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?

Apr 24, 8:29 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

35%chance

7210729

OptionVotes

YES

2028

418

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

610301

OptionProbability

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

4842

207

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

Aug 29, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.28%chance

162595

OptionVotes

YES

2673

374

Will California decriminalize psilocybin mushrooms before 2027?

Jan 14, 1:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

28.09%chance

311785

OptionVotes

YES

1663

235

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

111074

OptionVotes

YES

1110

946

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

2772

2450

California News

Prediction markets for California

Prediction markets for California

Prediction markets for California

Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Will Jamie Joyce win the 2026 12th California Congressional district race?

California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

Will California decriminalize psilocybin mushrooms before 2027?

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

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