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Prediction markets for Call

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1047

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

847

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163107

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

2

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?

Apr 15, 4:32 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

31.17%chance

192303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

954

Elon Musk called to testify before Congress by 2028?

Apr 13, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.21%chance

282218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

605

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Jan 26, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.19%chance

451047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

802

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will an AAA-gamemaker create a video game/FPS of the Russia-Ukraine War by 2030? (eg Call of Duty/Battlefield Ukraine)

Oct 1, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25.66%chance

10319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

953

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will Twitter/X go bankrupt before everyone calls it X?

Mar 7, 4:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.58%chance

15272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

868

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

Will the top two candidates for the US 2028 election call the 2028 election "the most important"

Jul 27, 8:11 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

45.94%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

925

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