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Prediction markets for Call

Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.3%chance

637202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

497

348

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1047

Will we have high-quality real-time age transitions for video calls before 2026 ends?

Jul 10, 12:58 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

48.54%chance

476234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

531

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

847

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

173157

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

1

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.67%chance

302993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

928

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?

Apr 15, 4:32 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

33.51%chance

212348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

989

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Jan 26, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.06%chance

461297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

964

Will an AAA-gamemaker create a video game/FPS of the Russia-Ukraine War by 2030? (eg Call of Duty/Battlefield Ukraine)

Oct 1, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25.66%chance

10319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

953

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

Will the top two candidates for the US 2028 election call the 2028 election "the most important"

Jul 27, 8:11 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

45.94%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

925

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