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Prediction markets for Call In

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

386539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

Will OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?

Mar 28, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.48%chance

496465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3764

863

Will AI replace most people in call-centers by 2030?

Jan 22, 11:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.92%chance

543655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

882

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.65%chance

282743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

804

Will Apple still be selling a device called the iPhone in 2035?

Mar 25, 2:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

75.17%chance

402511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

816

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?

Apr 15, 4:32 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

31.17%chance

192303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

954

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.36%chance

201696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

903

Will "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Call for ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 5:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.2%chance

10955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

901

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 12:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Will someone accidentally call Sigil Wen "Kevin", as in, "Kevin Wang" or "Kevin Chen" or "Kevin Huang" by EOY2029?

Sep 19, 4:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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