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Prediction markets for Call In

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

376139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

Will AI replace most people in call-centers by 2030?

Jan 22, 11:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.1%chance

533605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1260

894

Will Apple still be selling a device called the iPhone in 2035?

Mar 25, 2:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

73%chance

382389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1285

850

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?

Apr 15, 4:32 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

24.87%chance

181993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

858

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.09%chance

171580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

928

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.97%chance

261463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

919

Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025?

Jun 15, 10:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.83%chance

25980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

966

When will I be able to call a Waymo to get from San Francisco to Lighthaven in Berkeley?

Feb 22, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8960

OptionProbability

Q3 2026

Q2 2026

Q1 2026

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Other

Q4 2027

Q3 2025

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q4 2025

28

19

12

7

7

7

7

6

4

2

1

1

1

Will "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Call for ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 5:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.59%chance

7654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1603

926

Will Vladimir Putin publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.09%chance

10590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

536

166

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will Narendra Modi publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.49%chance

6125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

138

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