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Prediction markets for Call Notes

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4670204

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

79

56

0

0

0

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6260938

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Nigel Farage

Other

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Boris Johnson

Richard Tice

Rupert Lowe

Ed Davey

Idris Elba

33

27

19

6

5

4

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.19%chance

5529670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24349

5000

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7894

5344

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.15%chance

323360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

888

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Oct 12, 8:49 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

39.07%chance

211848

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

768

Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025?

Jun 15, 10:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.83%chance

25980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

966

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.15%chance

9461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1430

699

Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds?

May 16, 9:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.74%chance

13436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

977

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

63%chance

7305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

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