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Prediction markets for Call Notes

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

765

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5379100

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

49

5

0

0

0

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9016869

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

31

13

12

10

9

8

6

4

3

2

0

Will a chatbot read sheet music before 2027?

Jan 12, 11:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.58%chance

525976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

794

Did the Russians intend to destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if they intended a significantly lesser sabotage)

Jun 9, 4:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.15%chance

404010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

975

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

173157

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

1

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Oct 12, 8:49 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

33.1%chance

221998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

918

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1116

Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds?

May 16, 9:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.79%chance

13449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

964

When will the Kakeya conjecture be proved or disproved?

Apr 7, 2:36 PMDec 31, 2:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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