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Prediction markets for Call Notes

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

24568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

598

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will a chatbot read sheet music before 2027?

Jan 12, 11:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.24%chance

444914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

970

Did the Russians intend to destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if they intended a significantly lesser sabotage)

Jun 9, 4:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.93%chance

394005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

979

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.52%chance

383921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7881

5345

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163107

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

2

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Oct 12, 8:49 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

33.1%chance

221998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

918

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52%chance

10704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

1156

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.84%chance

9471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

704

Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds?

May 16, 9:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.79%chance

13449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

964

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