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Prediction markets for Canadian government

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

8.21%chance

288893

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3344

299

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.54%chance

268391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3780

265

Will any part of Canada join the United States by 2030?

Jan 26, 6:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.99%chance

123983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2382

420

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.94%chance

73804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

985

Did Tesla defraud the Canadian government by falsifying sales figures in January 2025?

Mar 31, 2:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.96%chance

241220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

518

482

Will Québec become an independent nation, separate from Canada, by 2040?

Nov 24, 1:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.67%chance

12803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

688

122

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

28.84%chance

5705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

637

New pipeline project proposed in Canada in next 6 months?

Jun 8, 1:09 AMDec 8, 1:06 AM

39.86%chance

7441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

When will Mark Carney release the Canadian Federal Budget?

May 29, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:53 AM

4340

When will Canada break apart?

May 1, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11288

OptionProbability

No breakup / none of these years

Between 2035 and 2039

Between 2030 and 2034

Between 2040 and 2044

Between 2025 and 2029

62

14

10

8

6

The Canadian government will pass the Online Harms Act Bill C-63 before 2026?

May 31, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.82%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

76

Will the Canadian government put someone on trial for killing Barry and Honey Sherman before 2030? (see desc.)

Feb 25, 7:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

116

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