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Prediction markets for Canadian government

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

5.66%chance

3011576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4082

245

Will any part of Canada join the United States by 2030?

Jan 26, 6:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.99%chance

269739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2745

374

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

Jan 22, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.56%chance

268974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3775

265

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

7.53%chance

308572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

286

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

11.47%chance

91913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2779

360

If Alberta secession referendum before 2029, what percentage vote to leave?

Feb 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131163

OptionProbability

0 - 39.99%

50 - 59.99%

40 - 49.99%

60 - 100%

96

2

1

1

Will Québec become an independent nation, separate from Canada, by 2040?

Nov 24, 1:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.2%chance

14806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

630

125

Chinese EVs manufactured in Canada?

Apr 2, 3:04 AMApr 9, 3:01 AM

46.27%chance

13531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

858

Any province legalizes psilocybin for recreational use?

Feb 1, 11:40 AMDec 17, 11:59 PM

9.62%chance

4145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

996

Will Canada pass a Warrantless mass data collection law, as part of Bill C-22, in 2026?

May 23, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.54%chance

9106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will the Canadian government put someone on trial for killing Barry and Honey Sherman before 2030? (see desc.)

Feb 25, 7:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

116

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