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Top stories

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

Authors

111

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Cannes

Will Cannibis be federally legalized in America by 2026?

Aug 28, 8:56 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6.65%chance

9332215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

665

Will cannabis be decriminalised in New Zealand by 2027?

Oct 14, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

3.1%chance

388273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5452

279

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

23.93%chance

444849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1783

561

Will Trump sign any cannabis-related legislation during his second term?

Dec 6, 2:40 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

53.27%chance

473246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

937

When will recreational cannabis be Federally legalised in Australia?

Jan 14, 1:34 PMJan 21, 3:59 PM

91815

OptionProbability

2026 - 2030

2030 - 2040

After 2040

2025

49

33

20

3

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Will Aileen Cannon be confirmed to the Supreme Court by 2029?

Jul 15, 4:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.27%chance

141455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 13, 12:06 AM

21.52%chance

171106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1910

524

In which year will France legalize recreational usage of cannabis ?

Mar 22, 9:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

27.45%chance

11332

OptionProbability

NO

YES

450

409

Will "Do not conquer what you cannot defend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 16, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

27.68%chance

6300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

479

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

Jul 21, 4:28 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

20.36%chance

19293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

949

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

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