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Prediction markets for Cap

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Jun 5, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130246646

OptionProbability

SpaceX

Anthropic

OpenAi

Discord

Other

92

8

0

0

0

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.66%chance

73139247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31400

7704

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

230123790

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Anthropic

Apple

Alphabet

SpaceX

Microsoft

OpenAI

Other

Tesla

Amazon

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Meta

TSMC

Broadcom

Samsung

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

ASML

Oracle

20

13

11

11

11

10

9

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Jul 18, 5:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11789512

OptionProbability

No [Anthropic < SpaceX]

No [Anthropic does not IPO in 2026]

Yes

No [SpaceX < Anthropic < Other company]

74

15

10

1

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.05%chance

13446712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13288

7276

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?

Apr 20, 9:30 PMApr 20, 9:29 PM

36.51%chance

4019736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2027

1887

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Dec 30, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.25%chance

3313877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

546

18

Will Tesla overtake NVIDIA in market cap before 2030?

Jun 19, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.98%chance

7813431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2480

403

Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?

May 23, 9:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.27%chance

356496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1746

605

Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO?

May 16, 3:13 AMMay 16, 3:12 AM

44.89%chance

212173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

628

What market cap will Tesla reach before 2036?

Nov 8, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8615

OptionProbability

$ 2 trillion

$ 3 trillion

$ 4 trillion

$ 6 trillion

$ 8.5 trillion

88

73

65

34

21

At what market cap will Manifold Markets exit?

Aug 31, 7:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.86%chance

21426

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2292

2135

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