Capital Markets Act News

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.66%chance

43645

OptionVotes

YES

4212

237

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

19.9%chance

171331

OptionVotes

YES

201

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

20.06%chance

2875

OptionVotes

YES

1334

101

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

1448

691

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Mar 18, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.11%chance

11357

OptionVotes

YES

213

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Jan 14, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.92%chance

10195

OptionVotes

YES

168

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?

Nov 2, 12:56 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

26.83%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

165

Conditional on both sides agreeing to engage, what are the odds the lair can keep a fish alive longer than Zane can?

Dec 18, 5:49 PMDec 18, 5:41 PM

120

OptionProbability

Zane wins

Lair wins / ties

Act of God

Other

Capital Markets Act News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Act

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Act

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Act

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?

Conditional on both sides agreeing to engage, what are the odds the lair can keep a fish alive longer than Zane can?

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