Capital Markets Day News

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Dec 30, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19%chance

2913568

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will Intel stock reach $100 by the end of 2026?

Jan 9, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

187809

OptionVotes

YES

2066

485

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

336478

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

[Polymarket] What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Dec 17, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

254311

OptionProbability

$STAR

$SPAX

$SX

$SEX

$MARS

$SPACE

Other

$SPC

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

1073

935

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

2640

380

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Jan 13, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61628

OptionProbability

NVIDIA

Alphabet

Apple

Microsoft

Amazon

Broadcom

Tesla

Will the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?

Jan 3, 5:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

3.84%chance

121119

OptionVotes

YES

501

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Mar 18, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.33%chance

9282

OptionVotes

YES

198

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.13%chance

4227

OptionVotes

YES

1103

907

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Capital Markets Day News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Will Intel stock reach $100 by the end of 2026?

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

[Polymarket] What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

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