Capital Markets Day News

Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Jul 18, 5:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247472

OptionProbability

Yes

No [Anthropic < SpaceX]

No [Anthropic does not IPO in 2026]

No [SpaceX < Anthropic < Other company]

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Dec 30, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.25%chance

3313877

OptionVotes

YES

546

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.67%chance

3812886

OptionVotes

YES

2893

346

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

337916

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

4412

227

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

1365

735

Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day?

Jun 1, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

244909

OptionProbability

1 trillion or higher?

1.2 trillion or higher?

1.5 trillion or higher?

1.8 trillion or higher?

2 trillion or higher?

2.4 trillion or higher?

2.7 trillion or higher?

3 trillion or higher?

4 trillion or higher?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Aug 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.24%chance

13363

OptionVotes

YES

268

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45%chance

4230

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

7151

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

1 month after Anthropic IPO, will their market cap be higher than launch day?

Aug 31, 4:41 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

42.15%chance

550

OptionVotes

YES

117

Capital Markets Day News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

1 month after Anthropic IPO, will their market cap be higher than launch day?

Latest stories