Capital Markets Day News

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Dec 30, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19%chance

2913568

OptionVotes

YES

206

[Polymarket] What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Dec 17, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

327202

OptionProbability

$SPCX

Other

$SPAX

$SEX

$STAR

$MARS

$SX

$SPACE

$SPC

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

337165

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.28%chance

244492

OptionVotes

YES

3573

281

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

1088

922

Will the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?

Jan 3, 5:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

3.84%chance

121119

OptionVotes

YES

501

Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?

Apr 30, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.49%chance

13537

OptionVotes

YES

107

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Mar 18, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.03%chance

10297

OptionVotes

YES

153

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.13%chance

4227

OptionVotes

YES

1103

907

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

200

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Capital Markets Day News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

[Polymarket] What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?

Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

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