Capital Markets Day News

Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Jul 18, 5:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11789512

OptionProbability

No [Anthropic < SpaceX]

No [Anthropic does not IPO in 2026]

Yes

No [SpaceX < Anthropic < Other company]

Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day?

Jun 1, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3721875

OptionProbability

1 trillion or higher?

1.2 trillion or higher?

1.5 trillion or higher?

1.8 trillion or higher?

2 trillion or higher?

2.4 trillion or higher?

2.7 trillion or higher?

3 trillion or higher?

4 trillion or higher?

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.97%chance

4117263

OptionVotes

YES

4374

229

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Dec 30, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.25%chance

3313877

OptionVotes

YES

546

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

338195

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

1458

688

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

3717

270

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

30.52%chance

5770

OptionVotes

YES

1509

663

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Aug 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

16751

OptionVotes

YES

580

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

10170

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

1 month after Anthropic IPO, will their market cap be higher than launch day?

Aug 31, 4:41 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

50.68%chance

666

OptionVotes

YES

101

Capital Markets Day News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Day

Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day?

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

1 month after Anthropic IPO, will their market cap be higher than launch day?

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