OptionProbability
An incumbent senator loses general election
Trump is incumbent president
An Incumbent governor loses general election
Democrats win both chamber of congress
Democrats win back the house majority
Abdul El Sayed wins Michigan senate seat
Blue wave in 2026 midterms election
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in a 2026 midterm election
Democrats win at least 9 house seats from Washington State
2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor
GOP and MAGA attempts to overturn 2026 midterm election
Another Jan 6-style capitol attack
2026 midterm election not free and fair
Democratic house victory gets stolen and tilted to GOP ruling favor
Zach Lahn wins 2026 Iowa governor election
Republicans have high turnout of voters and win the house
Republicans vote in highest turnout numbers and win the midterms
Republicans win house majority control
Republicans in polls and markets rise back up and retakes the lead
October surprises help Republicans win house majority and midterms
Democrats lose the house
Red wave in 2026 midterm elections
2026 midterm election cancelled
100
99
91
88
87
64
34
13
5
4
3
0
Trump isn’t convicted of any of these charges
Conviction(s) in exactly 1 of the 4 charges.
Conviction(s) in exactly 2 of the 4 charges.
Conviction(s) in exactly 3 of the 4 charges.
Conviction(s) in all 4 of the charges.
98
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1199
834
287
35
