Capture News
Prediction markets for Capture
OptionProbability
63
28
9
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
30.73%chance
764207
OptionVotes
1281
1116
Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends
Mar 31, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
6.44%chance
293603
OptionVotes
3267
630
Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15.31%chance
293439
OptionVotes
1912
721
Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?
Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM
5.63%chance
63225
OptionVotes
4095
244
OptionVotes
2063
545
[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?
Oct 13, 4:18 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM
7.48%chance
10567
OptionVotes
1454
873
[CAPTURE THE FLAG] Will anyone from the comments go to 78.903876, -42.498353? (North Pole)
Jul 9, 1:23 PMDec 8, 10:59 PM
7.37%chance
11447
OptionVotes
1151
959
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
Sep 19, 3:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.28%chance
8363
OptionVotes
128
94
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?
Jun 8, 8:06 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM
37.15%chance
12276
OptionVotes
130
77
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?
Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.73%chance
11204
OptionVotes
1000
980
Will "Folie à Machine: LLMs and Epistemic Capture" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 14, 9:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.35%chance
14
OptionVotes
1004
976