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Prediction markets for Capture

Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel captured or killed in 2026

Jan 5, 5:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

234527

OptionProbability

Neither

Captured

Killed

63

28

9

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

1116

Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 31, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.44%chance

293603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3267

630

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.31%chance

293439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

721

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

5.63%chance

63225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4095

244

Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?

Jan 25, 9:53 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

79.84%chance

82214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

545

[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:18 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

7.48%chance

10567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

873

[CAPTURE THE FLAG] Will anyone from the comments go to 78.903876, -42.498353? (North Pole)

Jul 9, 1:23 PMDec 8, 10:59 PM

7.37%chance

11447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

959

Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030

Sep 19, 3:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.28%chance

8363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

94

Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?

Jun 8, 8:06 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

12276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will "Folie à Machine: LLMs and Epistemic Capture" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 14, 9:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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