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Prediction markets for Capture

Will Russian forces capture Pokrovsk by 2026?

May 5, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

4414668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2484

403

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.93%chance

723463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

1187

Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 31, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.3%chance

252751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2437

700

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.99%chance

211330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

When will Russia capture Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk)?

Jul 20, 2:06 PMApr 1, 12:37 PM

211063

OptionProbability

By the end of March 2026

By the end of January 2026

By the end of September 2025

By the end of November 2025

92

64

0

0

[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:18 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

7.48%chance

10567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

873

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

743

[CAPTURE THE FLAG] Will anyone from the comments go to 78.903876, -42.498353? (North Pole)

Jul 9, 1:23 PMDec 8, 10:59 PM

7.37%chance

11447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

959

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.17%chance

9405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

266

Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027

Sep 19, 3:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.89%chance

8263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

137

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2043?

Sep 1, 6:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

5148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

104

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