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Prediction markets for Capture

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

1116

Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?

Jan 25, 9:53 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.59%chance

153737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2198

480

Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 31, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.44%chance

293603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3267

630

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.72%chance

313499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1972

710

[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:18 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

7.48%chance

10567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

873

Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027

Sep 19, 3:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.99%chance

11468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

147

[CAPTURE THE FLAG] Will anyone from the comments go to 78.903876, -42.498353? (North Pole)

Jul 9, 1:23 PMDec 8, 10:59 PM

7.37%chance

11447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

959

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in November 2026?

Sep 21, 12:05 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

23.6%chance

11193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

What will CDR (carbon capture) cost per ton at the start of 2030?

Nov 24, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7120

OptionProbability

> $400/ton

$100–$400/ton

< $10/ton

$10–$100/ton

63

16

12

9

Will KIA-led forces have captured Bhamo by December 31, 2027?

Mar 31, 4:20 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

56.76%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

97

Will "Folie à Machine: LLMs and Epistemic Capture" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 14, 9:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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