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Prediction markets for Capture

When will Russia capture Pokrovsk?

Jan 3, 2:34 PMApr 1, 1:33 PM

166849

OptionProbability

Before April

Before March

Before January 16th

Before February

59

27

1

1

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

764157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

1066

Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 31, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.3%chance

252751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2437

700

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.68%chance

231730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1434

827

Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?

Jan 25, 9:53 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

71.7%chance

4775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1642

678

Will Volodymyr Zelensky be killed or captured while being the president of Ukraine?

Aug 15, 9:45 AMAug 22, 8:59 PM

16.36%chance

16593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

545

167

[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:18 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

7.48%chance

10567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

873

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

743

[CAPTURE THE FLAG] Will anyone from the comments go to 78.903876, -42.498353? (North Pole)

Jul 9, 1:23 PMDec 8, 10:59 PM

7.37%chance

11447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

959

Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027

Sep 19, 3:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.89%chance

8263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

137

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

If Erica Kirk is in the 2028 Republican Primary debate, will she capture >20% of the vote in the primary?

Jan 15, 6:07 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

31.06%chance

6105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

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