CARES Act News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.12%chance

615978

OptionVotes

YES

1261

513

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

10062

2804

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.76%chance

273028

OptionVotes

YES

1716

730

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.2%chance

101587

OptionVotes

YES

1328

753

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5852

OptionProbability

Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

Per-state insurance exchanges

Nutrition labelling requirements

Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

Medicaid expansion

Bundled payments for Medicare

Coverage for contraceptive methods

Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

States may require abortion care coverage

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

3238

OptionVotes

YES

1041

961

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will the Affordable Care Act get repealed before January 20th, 2029?

Nov 11, 10:30 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

35.96%chance

1047

OptionVotes

YES

133

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Do you care enough about CLIMATE CHANGE to change your actions? (personal poll)

Jan 21, 4:19 PM

920

CARES Act News

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Will the Affordable Care Act get repealed before January 20th, 2029?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Do you care enough about CLIMATE CHANGE to change your actions? (personal poll)

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