CARES Act News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.5%chance

585886

OptionVotes

YES

1213

571

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

101522

OptionVotes

YES

1223

818

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5852

OptionProbability

Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

Per-state insurance exchanges

Nutrition labelling requirements

Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

Medicaid expansion

Bundled payments for Medicare

Coverage for contraceptive methods

Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

States may require abortion care coverage

Will Trump eliminate any social programs in his second term?

Jul 9, 2:24 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

30.65%chance

6378

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

3238

OptionVotes

YES

1041

961

Will the Affordable Care Act get repealed before January 20th, 2029?

Nov 11, 10:30 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

35.96%chance

1047

OptionVotes

YES

133

Will the state of New Mexico launch its medical psilocybin program before April 20, 2027?

Jan 1, 4:53 PMApr 21, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

Apr 15, 3:27 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

111

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Do you care enough about CLIMATE CHANGE to change your actions? (personal poll)

Jan 21, 4:19 PM

910

CARES Act News

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Will Trump eliminate any social programs in his second term?

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Will the Affordable Care Act get repealed before January 20th, 2029?

Will the state of New Mexico launch its medical psilocybin program before April 20, 2027?

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Do you care enough about CLIMATE CHANGE to change your actions? (personal poll)

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