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Top stories

iOS 26 Beta Restores Watch Blood Oxygen, Expands AI as iPhone 17 Rumors Grow

iOS 26 Beta Restores Watch Blood Oxygen, Expands AI as iPhone 17 Rumors Grow

Authors

10

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Carrier

Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?

May 19, 5:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.98%chance

1237577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3011

2569

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Nov 14, 2:24 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

21.91%chance

141333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

152

The USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028

Jul 13, 5:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.75%chance

12857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

915

Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033

Jan 1, 11:35 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

17.16%chance

21555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

938

The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2026

Jul 13, 5:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8%chance

6365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

54

Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?

Mar 13, 1:20 PMMar 20, 3:59 PM

78.73%chance

7175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

355

126

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Nov 14, 2:28 PMJan 3, 4:00 AM

41.39%chance

10159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

106

Will hypersonic missile(s) sink a US aircraft carrier by 2030?

May 19, 4:38 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.19%chance

8130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

121

Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?

May 23, 9:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.71%chance

665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

97

83

Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?

Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

64.57%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.39%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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