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Top stories

iOS 26 Beta Restores Watch Blood Oxygen, Expands AI as iPhone 17 Rumors Grow

iOS 26 Beta Restores Watch Blood Oxygen, Expands AI as iPhone 17 Rumors Grow

Authors

10

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Carrier

Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?

May 19, 5:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

1187120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3051

2348

Will one of the USA's aircraft carriers be sunk in 2025?

Jun 22, 4:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3%chance

181819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

569

18

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Nov 14, 2:24 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

22.46%chance

121296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

153

Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033

Jan 1, 11:35 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

18.56%chance

19452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

957

The USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028

Jul 13, 5:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.95%chance

10328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

973

The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2026

Jul 13, 5:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.18%chance

5305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

48

Will Nauru acquire an aircraft carrier before 2031?

Feb 18, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10.42%chance

5258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

72

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Nov 14, 2:28 PMJan 3, 4:00 AM

33.1%chance

9144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

91

Will hypersonic missile(s) sink a US aircraft carrier by 2030?

May 19, 4:38 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

9.29%chance

7123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

114

Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?

May 23, 9:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

45.58%chance

557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.39%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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