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Prediction markets for Casual

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18831312

OptionProbability

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

55

25

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

26.01%chance

86380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9588

101

Will a major terrorist attack with over 100 casualties be committed against the US during Trump's current term?

Feb 5, 9:41 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

20.8%chance

355350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1951

512

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Will there be an active war over Antarctica before 2100 with at least 10 casualties?

Aug 6, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.07%chance

472970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

953

Will a military skirmish with at least one casualty take place outside of Earth's atmosphere before 2050?

Feb 3, 11:52 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.25%chance

11553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

275

102

Will there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?

Jan 2, 5:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.72%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

372

27

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules

Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7207

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

77

44

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

Nov 29, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7185

OptionProbability

Bio-Risk

other

Drones

Paperclipped

"AI gets the nuclear codes"

Disruption of global food supply chain

AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter

AI hacking takes down global communications networks

Chemical attack

Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute

33

28

10

6

4

4

4

4

3

3

Will paid WoW Mythic dungeon carry services become more mainstream among casual World of Warcraft players by the end of

Dec 27, 10:07 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

20.96%chance

2128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

51

This decade, will a popular YouTuber release a video posthumously that casually references the fact that they had died?

Aug 20, 9:39 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.16%chance

11110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

182

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