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Prediction markets for Casual

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18831312

OptionProbability

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

55

25

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

26.01%chance

86380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9588

101

Will a major terrorist attack with over 100 casualties be committed against the US during Trump's current term?

Feb 5, 9:41 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

25.49%chance

375700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

585

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Will there be an active war over Antarctica before 2100 with at least 10 casualties?

Aug 6, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.07%chance

472970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

953

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.67%chance

221578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

772

US Space Force combat casualty during 2026?

Mar 9, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

11586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

397

25

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules

Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7207

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

77

44

Will paid WoW Mythic dungeon carry services become more mainstream among casual World of Warcraft players by the end of

Dec 27, 10:07 AMJan 11, 11:59 PM

20.96%chance

2128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

51

This decade, will a popular YouTuber release a video posthumously that casually references the fact that they had died?

Aug 20, 9:39 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.16%chance

11110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

182

Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?

Oct 13, 1:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.61%chance

528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

98

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