Catalyst News

US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?

Sep 11, 10:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.83%chance

219394

OptionVotes

YES

5857

171

Keir Starmer still UK prime minister by?

Jan 17, 4:12 AMDec 17, 11:59 PM

344655

OptionProbability

June 2026

December 2026

June 2027

December 2027

June 2028

December 2028

June 2029

December 2029

June 2030

December 2030

June 2031

December 2031

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Jan 2, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133503

OptionProbability

It won't, not before 2027

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

June 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

Will there be helium-3 production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 3:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.88%chance

212624

OptionVotes

YES

977

890

Who will resign first?

Jan 12, 3:07 AMDec 31, 3:03 AM

141305

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Kemi Badenoch

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

239

Will there be oxygen production on the moon before 2053 ?

May 6, 2:31 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

81.03%chance

19656

OptionVotes

YES

1449

853

Will there be aluminum production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 2:43 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

50.68%chance

17610

OptionVotes

YES

1126

857

Will there be steel production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 2:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

44.68%chance

14468

OptionVotes

YES

1052

954

How will the first artificial molecular assembler be constructed?

Aug 20, 4:59 AMDec 20, 7:59 AM

19354

OptionProbability

Protein Synthesis (e.g. DNA origami, RNA tiles)

Other

Additive Photolithography (e.g. 1 or 2-photon polymerization)

Vapor Deposition (e.g. CVD, PVD, ...)

Subtractive Photolithography (e.g. EUV photoresist)

Scanning Probe Microscopy (e.g. AFM/STM vertical atom manipulation)

Peptidomimetic Macrocycles (e.g. spiroligomer-based membranes)

Focused Ion Beam (e.g. sputtering or metal deposition)

Will there be water production on the moon before 2053 ?

May 6, 2:33 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.94%chance

12218

OptionVotes

YES

219

170

Will there be titanium production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 2:59 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.11%chance

13192

OptionVotes

YES

1044

925

Catalyst News

Prediction markets for Catalyst

Prediction markets for Catalyst

Prediction markets for Catalyst

US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?

Keir Starmer still UK prime minister by?

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Will there be helium-3 production on the moon before 2063 ?

Who will resign first?

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Will there be oxygen production on the moon before 2053 ?

Will there be aluminum production on the moon before 2063 ?

Will there be steel production on the moon before 2063 ?

How will the first artificial molecular assembler be constructed?

Will there be water production on the moon before 2053 ?

Will there be titanium production on the moon before 2063 ?

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