Causal News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.92%chance

326859763

OptionVotes

YES

7157

3586

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17280548

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.45%chance

174275

OptionVotes

YES

3477

1297

Will Pearl's causality have important implications for fundamental physics?

Dec 1, 3:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.18%chance

25838

OptionVotes

YES

1357

910

Will econometrics fully switch to graphical causal inference by the end of 2028?

Mar 21, 8:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.27%chance

9306

OptionVotes

YES

281

Will causal inference be “very important in AI” by 2035?

Apr 4, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.03%chance

9205

OptionVotes

YES

253

192

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Aug 3, 1:12 AMAug 3, 1:09 AM

2140

OptionProbability

Gravitational path integral of metric field

Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models)

Causal set

AdS/CFT

Canonical loop quantum gravity

Quantum geometrodynamics

Gravity is not subject quantum mechanics

Low hanging fruit in dataviz due to causality?

Aug 12, 9:20 PMDec 31, 10:04 PM

29%chance

7112

OptionVotes

YES

156

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

May 25, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.5%chance

888

OptionVotes

YES

115

104

Will AGI be maximally impatient in trying to expand its causally-affectable portion of the universe?

Mar 26, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.2%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

100

What would it mean for causality to be violated?

Dec 31, 3:19 PMJan 1, 3:16 PM

110

OptionProbability

Causality can't be violated, even in principle

Special relativity is falsified.

Time travel is possible.

Prop bets about review article on "Indefinite Quantum Causality"

Jan 14, 8:22 PMDec 31, 8:14 PM

OptionProbability

It cites Hartle (1992) "Spacetime quantum mechanics and the quantum mechanics of spacetime".

It acknowledges that the path integral formalism allows the accommodation of indefinite causal structure for quantum gravity.

It presents the "process matrix formalism" as a promising framework for studying indefinite causal structure for quantum gravity (whether or not this is the case).

It explicitly admits that most of the works they review are misguided.

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Prediction markets for Causal

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Prediction markets for Causal

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

Will Pearl's causality have important implications for fundamental physics?

Will econometrics fully switch to graphical causal inference by the end of 2028?

Will causal inference be “very important in AI” by 2035?

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Low hanging fruit in dataviz due to causality?

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

Will AGI be maximally impatient in trying to expand its causally-affectable portion of the universe?

What would it mean for causality to be violated?

Prop bets about review article on "Indefinite Quantum Causality"

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