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Prediction markets for CEA

When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

Jun 8, 9:11 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

202150997

OptionProbability

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2029-07-01

Before 2029-01-01

Before 2028-07-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-07-01

73

66

64

61

46

22

3

0

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.39%chance

9743326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6054

4410

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

5029273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23143

1562

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

9%chance

7922197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1861

46

[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.44%chance

3017290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13159

4446

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.42%chance

185897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9928

3914

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 13, 5:56 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

14.83%chance

493623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1519

859

CEA will run an EAG in 2030

Jul 29, 6:17 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

80.01%chance

81265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2001

500

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.13%chance

10742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

375

Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.23%chance

12672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

857

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.72%chance

13664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

818

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