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Top stories

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Seeks Two Congressional Seats Citing 2020 Census Undercount and Rhode Island Dispute

US Domestic Policy

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Seeks Two Congressional Seats Citing 2020 Census Undercount and Rhode Island Dispute

Authors

7

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Census

The next census in 2030 will show an increase in United States birth rate.

Sep 30, 3:40 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

24.17%chance

131463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

988

956

How many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will California lose/gain after the next U.S. census?

Feb 28, 6:13 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

51125

OptionProbability

Lose more than 2

Lose 1

Lose 2

No Change

Gain 1

Gain more than 1

44

22

19

8

4

2

Which 3 US cities will see the largest raw increase in population over the 20s, as judged by the 2030 census?

Aug 9, 4:11 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

81029

OptionProbability

Austin, Texas

Fort Worth, TX

Houston, TX

San Antonio, TX

Phoenix, AZ

Dallas, TX

Charlotte, NC

NYC, NY

Seattle, WA

Atlanta, Georgia

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Denver, CO

Boston, MA

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, CA

Miami, FL

Washington, DC

San Jose, CA

San Diego, CA

Columbus, OH

San Francisco, CA

Chicago, IL

Port St. Lucie, FL

Huntsville, Alabama

Boise, ID

Albuquerque, NM

Fort Myers, Florida

Berkeley, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Cleveland, OH

St Louis, MO

Salt Lake City, UT

Tallahassee, Florida

79

74

73

73

68

66

46

26

20

16

16

16

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

11

10

10

9

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)

Jan 22, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11572

OptionProbability

>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)

>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)

>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)

< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)

47

43

8

2

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.08%chance

10352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will Trump force the USA to take a new census by the end of 2028?

Aug 14, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.89%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

678

556

Will more than 40% of respondents identify as having “No religion” in the 2041 UK Census?

Apr 3, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.44%chance

7310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

352

53

In which census will the California population first exceed 40 million?

May 10, 6:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4138

OptionProbability

Later or never

2050

2030

2040

42

25

17

17

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

Will India be the most common non-Australia country of birth in the next Australian census?

Feb 27, 12:09 PMOct 10, 1:29 PM

34.65%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

121

Will Kansas City Missouri have a population of over 550 thousand people in 2030 as reported by the US Census?

Nov 29, 4:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.61%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

The number of daily Irish speakers will increase in the next Irish census

Nov 15, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.15%chance

883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

119

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