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Top stories

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Seeks Two Congressional Seats Citing 2020 Census Undercount and Rhode Island Dispute

US Domestic Policy

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Seeks Two Congressional Seats Citing 2020 Census Undercount and Rhode Island Dispute

Authors

7

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Census

The next census in 2030 will show an increase in United States birth rate.

Sep 30, 3:40 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

37.04%chance

141850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

599

How many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will Texas lose/gain after the next U.S. census?

Feb 28, 6:18 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

71455

OptionProbability

Gain more than 2

Gain 2

Gain 1

No Change

Lose more than 1

Lose 1

59

24

8

4

3

2

How many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will California lose/gain after the next U.S. census?

Feb 28, 6:13 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

51125

OptionProbability

Lose more than 2

Lose 1

Lose 2

No Change

Gain 1

Gain more than 1

44

22

19

8

4

2

2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)

Jan 22, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11572

OptionProbability

>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)

>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)

>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)

< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)

47

43

8

2

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.11%chance

11402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Will Trump force the USA to take a new census by the end of 2028?

Aug 14, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.89%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

678

556

Will more than 40% of respondents identify as having “No religion” in the 2041 UK Census?

Apr 3, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.44%chance

7310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

352

53

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

Will India be the most common non-Australia country of birth in the next Australian census?

Feb 27, 12:09 PMOct 10, 1:29 PM

34.65%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

121

Will Kansas City Missouri have a population of over 550 thousand people in 2030 as reported by the US Census?

Nov 29, 4:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.61%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

The number of daily Irish speakers will increase in the next Irish census

Nov 15, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.24%chance

9113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

90

Will the 2030 NYC census be less than the 2020 census?

Aug 14, 12:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.48%chance

695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

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