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Top stories

Kolko Says Reported Surge in Native-Born Jobs Is Statistical Mirage

Kolko Says Reported Surge in Native-Born Jobs Is Statistical Mirage

Authors

6

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Census

The next census in 2030 will show an increase in United States birth rate.

Sep 30, 3:40 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

24.17%chance

131463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

988

956

Which 3 US cities will see the largest raw increase in population over the 20s, as judged by the 2030 census?

Aug 9, 4:11 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

7999

OptionProbability

Fort Worth, TX

San Antonio, TX

Phoenix, AZ

Austin, Texas

Charlotte, NC

Houston, TX

NYC, NY

Seattle, WA

Atlanta, Georgia

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Denver, CO

Boston, MA

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, CA

Miami, FL

Washington, DC

Dallas, TX

San Jose, CA

San Diego, CA

Columbus, OH

San Francisco, CA

Chicago, IL

Port St. Lucie, FL

Huntsville, Alabama

Boise, ID

Albuquerque, NM

Fort Myers, Florida

Berkeley, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Cleveland, OH

St Louis, MO

Salt Lake City, UT

Tallahassee, Florida

74

73

68

47

46

30

26

20

16

16

16

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

11

10

10

9

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

How many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will Texas lose/gain after the next U.S. census?

Feb 28, 6:18 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

5785

OptionProbability

Gain more than 2

Gain 1

Gain 2

Lose 1

No Change

Lose more than 1

35

29

20

6

6

5

2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)

Jan 22, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11572

OptionProbability

>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)

>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)

>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)

< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)

47

43

8

2

Will the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census?

Mar 20, 11:54 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

11.75%chance

9364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

392

107

Will more than 40% of respondents identify as having “No religion” in the 2041 UK Census?

Apr 3, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.44%chance

7310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

352

53

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.51%chance

10295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

878

Will force the USA to take a new census by the end of 2028?

Aug 14, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.45%chance

6186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

In which census will the California population first exceed 40 million?

May 10, 6:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

397

OptionProbability

2050

2030

2040

Later or never

39

21

21

21

The number of daily Irish speakers will increase in the next Irish census

Nov 15, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.15%chance

883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

119

Will the 2030 NYC census be less than the 2020 census?

Aug 14, 12:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.1%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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