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Prediction markets for Centaur

Will an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage?

Feb 28, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.28%chance

91888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

48

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Nov 13, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111485

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

100

6

1

1

1

1

1

Will an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?

Feb 25, 9:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.99%chance

171053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1701

884

Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?

Sep 8, 3:56 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

69.37%chance

16502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

712

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Mar 20, 9:15 PMMar 21, 3:59 AM

7493

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 3

Above 5

Above 7

83

17

3

1

When will the first human colony be established in Alpha Centauri

Jun 5, 9:48 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

11139

OptionProbability

Other

Never, humans go extinct before colonizing Alpha Centauri.

2100

2075

2050

Not before 2200.

2150

51

18

12

9

4

4

2

Which mission theme will NASA's New Frontiers Six mission be selected from?

Apr 1, 12:32 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

2138

OptionProbability

Centaur Orbiter and Lander

Ceres Sample Return

Comet surface sample return

Saturn probe

Enceladus multiple flyby

Io Observer

Lunar Geophysical Network

Titan orbiter

Venus In Situ Explorer

Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return

22

21

12

12

7

7

7

7

7

0

If/when humans send a mission to Alpha Centauri, will the subjective time experienced by the craft be more than 20 years?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

63.1%chance

9126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

163

Will human civilization send a space probe to the Alpha Centauri system before 2075?

Feb 10, 1:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.16%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

122

Will a remastered/modernized version of SMAC (Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri) come out by EOY2027?

Jan 17, 12:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will Elon Musk livestream himself playing Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri with OTHER real people by EOY2030?

Dec 29, 4:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Sara Seager live to see Project Starshot (or any probe to proxima/alpha centauri)?

Jun 28, 4:03 PMJul 21, 11:59 PM

43%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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