OptionProbability
5/16 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?
5/16 9:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
5/18 12:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
5/18 5:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
5/19 7:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?
5/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
5/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
5/22 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
5/22 7:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?
5/23 9:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
5/24 12:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
5/27 6:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
5/27 9:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta Dream WIN against (Los Angeles) Sparks?
5/30 6:30 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Suns against the (Indiana) Fever?
5/30 6:30 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty against the (Washington) Mystics?
5/30 9:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
5/30 9:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream against the (Seattle) Storm?
5/31 7:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky against the (Dallas) Wings?
6/1 5:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
6/1 5:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces against the (Seattle) Storm?
6/1 7:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
6/5 6:30 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty against the (Washington) Mystics?
6/6 8:30 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks against the (Dallas) Wings?
6/7 7:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever against the (Chicago) Sky?
6/7 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
6/9 9:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valyries against the (Los Angeles) Sparkd?
6/11 9:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
6/15 11:00 AM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
6/15 1:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
6/15 5:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Las Vegas) Ace?
6/18 6:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
6/19 6:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
6/20 6:30 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
6/20 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
6/21 12:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?
6/25 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
6/26 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
6/26 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
6/27 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
6/27 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?
6/29 3:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
6/29 5:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
7/1 7:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
7/3 6:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
7/5 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
7/6 12:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/6 3:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
7/10 2:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
7/13 5:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
7/14 7:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?
7/14 9:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
7/15 7:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
7/16 11:00 AM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?
7/16 7:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?
7/22 6:30 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Washington) Mystic?
7/22 9:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
7/23 9:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
7/24 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
7/26 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/28 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
7/29 6:30 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
7/31 6:30 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
8/03 12:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
8/03 2:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
8/03 2:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
8/03 5:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Chicago) Sun?
8/03 5:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Kas Vegas) Aces?
5/16 6:30 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
5/17 12:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
5/17 2:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
5/17 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
5/21 7:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wingz WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
5/21 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
5/21 9:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
5/23 6:30 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
5/23 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
5/23 9:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
5/24 2:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
5/25 2:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
5/25 5:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
5/25 5:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
5/25 5:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
5/27 6:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyriess WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
5/27 7:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
5/27 6:00 PM: Will the (Chicago Sky) against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
5/28 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever against the (Washington) Mystics?
5/29 6:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries against the (New York) Liberty?
5/29 6:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings against the (Chicago) Sky?
5/30 9:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
6/1 2:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Suns against the (New York) Liberty?
6/3 6:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics against the (Indiana) Fever?
6/3 7:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
6/3 8:30 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings against the (Seattle) Storm?
6/5 9:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
6/6 6:30 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream against the (Connecticut) Sun?
6/7 2:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
6/11 9:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
6/11 9:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx against the (Seattle) Storm?
6/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
6/13 9:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
6/14 12:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
6/14 2:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
6/14 7:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
6/17 6:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
6/19 9:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
6/20 6:30 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
6/21 7:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
6/22 2:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
6/22 2:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
6/22 2:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
6/22 6:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
6/24 7:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
6/25 9:00 PM: Will the (Connectictu) Sun WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
6/27 9:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
6/27 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
6/27 9:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
6/28 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?
6/29 2:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
6/29 6:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
6/29 7:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
7/3 6:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
7/3 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Aces WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/3 7:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?
7/3 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
7/5 7:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
7/6 6:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
7/7 6:30 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
7/7 9:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
7/8 10:30 AM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
7/8 7:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/9 10:00 AM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
7/12 12:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?
7/12 3:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
7/13 12:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
7/13 2:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/13 5:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
7/15 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
7/16 12:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
7/16 2:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
7/16 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/22 7:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/22 7:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
7/22 9:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
7/25 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
7/25 6:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
7/25 9:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
7/26 6:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
7/27 12:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
7/28 7:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?
7/30 6:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Indiana) Dream?
8/01 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Claude enters Rock Tunnel, surpassing its progress in any previous run
Claude catches Clefairy
Claude obtains HM01 Cut by step 39000
Any member of Claude's team learns Dig
Claude obtains 3 gym badges by step 50000
Claude obtains a Bicycle
Claude 4 Opus is the model that plays the game (not Claude 4 Sonnet)
Claude obtains 1 gym badge by step 20000
Claude gives a thirsty guard a drink
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan
Lack of thinking text display is fixed before 5/22 6 PM Central Time
Claude adds 18 or more Pokemon to his Pokedex (surpassing his completion from the previous run)
Claude adds his starter to his party by step 400
Claude catches Nidoran
Claude reaches Pewter City by step 5000
Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 20000
Claude reaches Vermilion City by step 30000
Another model defeats the Champion before Claude (in a run started after Claude 4 was released)
Claude blacks out by step 50000.
Claude's current team has at least 3 Pokémon by step 30000.
Claude catches Spearow
Claude evolves SPIKE into Nidoking
Claude enters Mt. Moon by step 6000.
Claude defeats a Team Rocket member by step 7000
Claude catches Oddish
Manifest begins
Claude spends less than 72 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 72 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)
Claude defeats Lt. Surge by step 30000
Claude uses CUT on a cuttable tree for the first time more than 1000 steps after obtaining the HM
Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)
Claude obtains Farfetch'd
Claude catches Drowzee
Claude enters Rock Tunnel before step 40000
Another model beats the Champion (following criteria like https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/in-progress-will-an-llm-become-a-po)
Claude reaches Lavender Town
Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000
Claude obtains a Coin Case
Claude uses Dig on the SS Anne
Claude evolves luna into Clefable
SPIKE reaches level 25
Claude gets 4 gym badges
Claude renames a Pokémon
Claude obtains the Lift Key
Claude stands next to a sleeping Snorlax
Claude obtains HM02 Fly
Claude evolves wings into Fearow
Claude gambles in the Game Corner
Claude catches Weedle
Claude obtains Hitmonlee
Claude obtains the Silph Scope
Claude enters Erika's gym
Claude catches Pikachu
Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000
Claude obtains HM05 Flash
Claude misspells a Pokemon name
Changes are made to help Claude see cuttable trees
Claude obtains Dugtrio
Claude buys a Magikarp
Claude re-prompts the Rocket in Mt. Moon to try and give it the fossil
Claude releases any Pokemon
Claude enters Safari Zone
The Area Hints section of the prompt is changed during the run
Joe Biden dies
Claude beats Erika or obtains the Lift Key by step 200000
Claude catches any legendary Pokemon (Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Mewtwo)
Claude defeats the Champion
Claude 4 Opus is #1 in the chatbot arena leaderboard
Claude picks Charmander
Claude takes more than 2000 steps between arriving in Pewter city and entering Pewter gym
Claude picks Dome Fossil (again)
Claude spends less than 24 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 24 hr from first entrance to stepping onto Route 4)
Claude reaches Pewter City by step 3000
Claude has a party with 4 or more Pokemon when he first challenges Brock
Claude's starter is lower level than another party member by step 100000.
Claude has a full, six-member party before step 10000
Claude spends less than 48 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 48 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)
Claude blacks out 3 times in Mt. Moon before reaching Cerulean City
Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 12500
Claude's current team has at least 4 Pokémon by step 20000.
Claude's two highest level Pokémon are more than 30 levels apart by step 100000.
Claude is still stuck on the S.S. Anne on step 21000
Claude reaches Celadon City by step 35000
Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 23000
Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 24000
Claude reaches Lavender Town by step 42500
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
73
44
39
37
35
34
32
31
30
29
26
25
25
24
23
23
20
20
18
17
15
14
14
11
11
9
5
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1316
492
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1969
508
OptionProbability
October
August
Not before 2026
September
November
December
February
March
April
May
June
July
29
22
17
11
11
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1957
1369
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2811
356
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3090
324
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1987
693
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1035
913
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1056
961
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1043
959