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Prediction markets for Central Time

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

45%chance

12656792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

616

Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?

Sep 11, 5:08 PMNov 4, 6:00 PM

2.51%chance

3517614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6230

161

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

28.2%chance

806768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

686

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.31%chance

112214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3122

320

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Jan 11, 1:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.48%chance

112192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3090

324

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.27%chance

91562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1402

713

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

36%chance

141088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

750

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Mar 1, 12:24 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

41.34%chance

14661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

913

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.72%chance

16465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

933

Will a Taskmaster US reboot air before the start of 2027?

Jun 2, 5:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

51.84%chance

5162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

964

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