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Prediction markets for Central Time

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

41.79%chance

12857881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

675

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

23.98%chance

807018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

598

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.42%chance

196966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13512

7412

Cuba / Florida Speedboat Attack: Which of the following are true

Feb 25, 8:43 PMMar 27, 7:43 PM

104393

OptionProbability

People on the boat were US military or CIA (or similar) on an official mission

Major escalation before EOD Feb 26. eg >4 more new deaths

18

0

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Jan 11, 1:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.48%chance

112192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3090

324

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

34%chance

161626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

718

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.95%chance

101567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Mar 1, 12:24 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

41.34%chance

14661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

913

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.72%chance

16465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

933

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will a Taskmaster US reboot air before the start of 2027?

Jun 2, 5:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.56%chance

5187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

989

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