CEO of the Year News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

Grok 5 will be released

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Google will outperform the S&P

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Anthropic IPO

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

OpenAI releases GPT-6

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Anthropic will release an image/video model

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI IPO

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

An LLM will beat me at chess

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

My median ASI timelines will shorten

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Grok 6 will be released

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

SSI will release a product

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

SSI IPO

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Anthropic releases Claude 6

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

Under 65 yo

Straight

Under 60 yo

Has a STEM degree of any type

Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

Is an American citizen

If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

Speaks a foreign language

Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

Under 55 yo

Has been a CEO

Is married

Under 50 yo

Has children

Self described person of color

Has ethnic Asian heritage

Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

Software Engineering background

Was not an American citizen at birth

Went to a private high school

Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement

Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

Has attended Davos

Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

Non-native English speaker

CEO will take office after Q2 2027

Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

Is an only child

Born in the USA

Has ethnic European heritage

Diversity Points Score: 1

Has visited or lived in China

Has ever been divorced

Has PhD

Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

Under 45 yo

Has written and published a book either academic or non

Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

Has submitted and received 2+ patents

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

Diversity Points Score: 0

Under 40 yo

Has Jewish heritage

Neither parent attended college

Was a college-level athlete

Has any public mention of playing pickleball

Has at least 3 children

Is publicly Christian

Diversity Points Score: 2

Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

Blue eyes

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

Diversity Points Score: 3

Diversity Points Score: 4

If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

Tattoo

Has served in us govt

Has passed a bar exam

Female

Born in the northeast

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

Raised in a single parent family

Left-handed

Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

Grew up in poverty

Catholic

Physics Background

Green eyes

Is Hispanic

Both parents had PhDs

LGBT*+

Has military experience

Has worked or attended school in Israel

Is Muslim

Unnatural hair colour

Has ethnic African heritage

Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

Has a physical disability

Has been to space

Has an ADOS background

Pronouns are not standard

Has a speech impediment

Trans

Is an AI

YES

YES

Officially confirmed that their chips are used by OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, with a value of at least 100m USD, by mid 2028

IPO actually happens in 2026

At end of first day trading, valuation >10b

+3 years from IPO, the CEO is still in place (from IPO time)

HQ moves farther than 50 miles from sunnyvale city hall

+2 years from IPO, valuation is >100b

Has over 1000 employees at IPO time.

The CEO Andrew Feldman has a wikipedia page active on the IPO day

Is purchased by another company by mid 2028

Any of their CEOs visits the White House, til mid 2027, media proof required*

Cerebras sells a consumer product, <10k usd, in US by mid 2027

Out of business by mid 2027

At end of first day trading, valuation >50b

IPO actually happens in 2027

2027

2033 or later

2030

2026

2029

2028

2031

2032

2024

2025

NO

YES

NO

YES

YES

NO