CEO of the Year News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Google will outperform the S&P

Grok 5 will be released

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Anthropic IPO

My median ASI timelines will shorten

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

OpenAI IPO

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

An LLM will beat me at chess

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

SSI will release a product

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

Anthropic releases Claude 6

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Grok 6 will be released

Anthropic will release an image/video model

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

YES

Under 65 yo

Under 60 yo

Straight

Has a STEM degree of any type

Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

Is an American citizen

If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

Under 55 yo

Speaks a foreign language

Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

Has been a CEO

Is married

Under 50 yo

Has children

Self described person of color

Has ethnic Asian heritage

Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

Software Engineering background

Was not an American citizen at birth

Went to a private high school

Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement

Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

Has attended Davos

Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

Non-native English speaker

CEO will take office after Q2 2027

Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

Is an only child

Born in the USA

Has ethnic European heritage

Diversity Points Score: 1

Has visited or lived in China

Has ever been divorced

Has PhD

Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

Under 45 yo

Has written and published a book either academic or non

Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

Has submitted and received 2+ patents

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

Diversity Points Score: 0

Under 40 yo

Has Jewish heritage

Neither parent attended college

Was a college-level athlete

Has any public mention of playing pickleball

Has at least 3 children

Is publicly Christian

Diversity Points Score: 2

Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

Blue eyes

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

Diversity Points Score: 3

Diversity Points Score: 4

If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

Tattoo

Has served in us govt

Has passed a bar exam

Female

Born in the northeast

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

Raised in a single parent family

Left-handed

Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

Grew up in poverty

Catholic

Physics Background

Green eyes

Is Hispanic

Both parents had PhDs

LGBT*+

Has military experience

Has worked or attended school in Israel

Is Muslim

Unnatural hair colour

Has ethnic African heritage

Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

Has a physical disability

Has been to space

Has an ADOS background

Pronouns are not standard

Has a speech impediment

Trans

Is an AI

IPO actually happens in 2026

At end of first day trading, valuation >10b

At end of first day trading, valuation >50b

Officially confirmed that their chips are used by OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, with a value of at least 100m USD, by mid 2028

+2 years from IPO, valuation is >100b

+3 years from IPO, the CEO is still in place (from IPO time)

HQ moves farther than 50 miles from sunnyvale city hall

Any of their CEOs visits the White House, til mid 2027, media proof required*

Is purchased by another company by mid 2028

Cerebras sells a consumer product, <10k usd, in US by mid 2027

Out of business by mid 2027

Has over 1000 employees at IPO time.

IPO actually happens in 2025

The CEO Andrew Feldman has a wikipedia page active on the IPO day

YES

2027

2033 or later

2030

2026

2029

2028

2031

2032

2024

2025

NO

NO

YES

YES

NO

YES