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Prediction markets for Chain

Will the AI-generated Bitcoin song "Chain of Infinite" by Lunr Reverb go viral and reach 1,000,000 streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.07%chance

283312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

486

21

Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?

Mar 3, 10:13 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

69.61%chance

181996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

57

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Mar 11, 10:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.58%chance

321438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

902

Will an American national fast food chain use lab-grown/cultured meat in a product by 2030?

Jan 16, 11:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.48%chance

36931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

806

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will "Towards a Typology of Strange LLM Chains-of-T..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 10, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.91%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

974

Which fast food chain in the USA will offer a lab-grown / cultivated meat product first?

Apr 2, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18242

OptionProbability

Other

Burger King

White Castle

Chipotle

Sweetgreen

Shake Shack

Mc Donald's

Panera Bread

Trump House

Kentucky Fried Chicken KFC

The Organic Coup

BurgerFi

Lyfe Kitchen

Sonics

Raising Cane

Arby's

Taco Bell

Wendy's

Popeyes

Chik-fil-A

Checkers/Rallys

Zaxbys

17

12

8

7

7

7

6

6

6

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Apr 16, 5:41 PMSep 1, 10:00 PM

55%chance

9220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

48

Will there be a significant on-chain compute marketplace before 2031?

Oct 14, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

6111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Trump's tariff policies cause copper supply chain efficiency to fall below 50 by March 2026?

Feb 21, 9:02 PMJun 21, 9:01 PM

54.81%chance

291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

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