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Prediction markets for Chain

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Mar 11, 10:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.58%chance

321438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

902

Will an American national fast food chain use lab-grown/cultured meat in a product by 2030?

Jan 16, 11:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.43%chance

35906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

863

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will "Towards a Typology of Strange LLM Chains-of-T..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 10, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.91%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

974

Which fast food chain in the USA will offer a lab-grown / cultivated meat product first?

Apr 2, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14211

OptionProbability

Other

Burger King

White Castle

Shake Shack

Chipotle

Mc Donald's

Trump House

Sonics

Kentucky Fried Chicken KFC

Panera Bread

The Organic Coup

BurgerFi

Sweetgreen

Lyfe Kitchen

Zaxbys

Raising Cane

Arby's

Taco Bell

Wendy's

Popeyes

Chik-fil-A

Checkers/Rallys

18

13

9

8

7

6

6

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be a significant on-chain compute marketplace before 2031?

Oct 14, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

6111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will there be a mass product, food, hotel chain, restaurant chain, or drink with the branding RICON by 2040

Aug 2, 9:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

In 2030 can you get a chain of 3 neural nets that jailbreak eachother?

Jun 22, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.49%chance

337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

71

Will www.mori.com produce a food packaging plastic-alternative used in a supermarket chain like whole foods by EOY2028?

Oct 17, 5:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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