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Prediction markets for Chain of Continuous Thought

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

Oct 10, 11:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71110

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2029

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

80

78

72

72

58

55

6

1

0

By what date will at least one SOTA reasoning model use neuralese?

Oct 10, 10:59 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9643

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.01.2029

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

87

76

69

67

66

65

61

5

0

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