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Prediction markets for Challenger

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14692045

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.47%chance

5013718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4838

836

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

May 19, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

5.23%chance

3811901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3916

589

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

222962

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.12%chance

202222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

588

Will the United States Supreme Court receive a challenge to gender identity as a protected class before 2026?

Apr 30, 12:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.6%chance

141516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

250

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.98%chance

311055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

927

Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?

Apr 1, 12:13 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

9.76%chance

22932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1787

808

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Will I win any prize in FWI's Innovation Challenge by October 17, 2025

Jun 12, 5:37 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

1350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

741

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

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