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Challengers News

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15397125

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,450 - 1,599

2,050 - 2,199

2,200 - 2,349

1,300 - 1,449

1 - 999

1,000 - 1,149

1,150 - 1,299

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

61

12

9

7

3

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

Nov 14, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.82%chance

3423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

37.48%chance

3327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

774

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?

Nov 12, 4:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.39%chance

6208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

101

Will Kristi Noem's Immigrant American Citizenship Challenge TV show air an episode by the end of 2026?

May 16, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.69%chance

8141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

41

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

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