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Prediction markets for Challengers

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171114509

OptionProbability

1,600 - 1,749

1,750 - 1,899

1,450 - 1,599

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

33

27

11

9

6

4

3

3

1

1

0

0

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

30

26

13

12

10

8

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

Nov 14, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.82%chance

3423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

37.48%chance

3327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

774

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Will SCOTUS hear a case challenging DOJ's Dec. 2025 update on disparate impact by 2027?

Dec 10, 4:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.99%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

650

554

Who will win the Bricked Up Tik Tok Challenge?

Oct 7, 5:25 PMApr 12, 5:23 PM

115

OptionProbability

Owen

Johnny

Liam

Ben

Drew

41

15

15

15

15

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Apr 5, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.28%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

916

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