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Prediction markets for Change Healthcare

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.48%chance

205553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10072

2801

Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

Jun 2, 7:29 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

84.61%chance

284339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2345

426

Will human civilisation collapse due to climate change before 2040?

Aug 4, 4:16 PMAug 4, 10:59 PM

4.23%chance

141393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

953

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.99%chance

12961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

887

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2031?

Jun 21, 11:59 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

83.44%chance

6181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

224

45

Will Keytruda cost less than $5000 per year before 2030?

Jun 21, 12:52 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

25.5%chance

6172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?

Jun 24, 11:20 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

83.68%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

226

44

Will Keytruda cost less than $10k per year before 2030?

Jun 10, 9:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

59.17%chance

8121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Keytruda cost less than $2000 per year before 2030?

Jun 24, 12:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

26.35%chance

4103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

Should QALYs decay in value by age?

Dec 14, 9:25 PMDec 15, 4:59 AM

30

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