Channel Up News

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Hollow Knight Silk song released

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Dodgers win World Series

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

GPT 5 releases

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

Ukraine internal coup attempt

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Chuck Schumer resigns

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

Harry and Meghan divorce

Early general elections in Pakistan

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

US-China war

Biden gets hospitalised

EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Congress repeals any tariff

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

A country leaves NATO

NATO at war with Russia

A nuclear bomb explodes

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

Trump assassinated

2025 hotter then 2024

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Putin assassinated

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Putin dies

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Biden dies

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

A country leaves the EU

Phillies win the World Series

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

pass 500 or more executive orders

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Stays alive

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

Revoke ten or more citizenships

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Pardon himself

File lawsuit against a congressperson

have a journalist arrested

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

new blockade of a country

Prosecute someone for flag burning

Pardon a convicted pedophile

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

resume buying oil from Russia

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

call someone retarded through text or speech

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

Dep

Nominate a family member to high office

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

put his name on a ship in the navy

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Announce he’s running for a third term

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

ten or more protestors killed during term

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Causes Tina Peters' early release

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Pardon p diddy

Add a citizenship question to the census

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

take state ownership in an airline

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

add a new federal holiday in his honor

take control of a part of ukraine

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

Replace his Vice President

stops all sanctions on Russia

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

force a former president to testify before Congress

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

expand the borders of the usa

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal Obamacare

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

actually disinter bodies from another country

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

orders arrests of any Biden family member

repeal an amendment

Enact price controls on groceries

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

host putin at mar a lago

make statements that are negative about labubu

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

take control of a part of greenland

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

declares a white history month

ends black history month

all time high unemployment reached

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Implement a federal age of consent

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

Causes derek chauvin's early release

fully nationalize an airline

Says 6 7 (or variant)

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

pardon derek chauvin

Raise the retirement age for social security

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

Salute Putin

Withdraw from NATO

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Call for the end of child marriage

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Annex any part of Mexico

change the borders of a state

add a new state

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Call for the end of the Senate

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

fauci in jail at least one week

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

ban trans people from holding federal offices

Implement a federal abortion ban

bans anime

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Wearing a white dress after labor day

bans 6 7

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Taylor Swift has been married

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

True Detective Season 5 released

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

at least one spider man movie releases each year

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

1200 or more official pokemon

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Taylor Swift has been divorced

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

China has landed a human on the moon

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

Number of president executive orders in 2025

Number of USA presidential pardons in 2025

Number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic hurricane season

Doomsday Clock seconds to midnight

Largest earthquake in 2025 (eg 7.5 would be 75%)

Bitcoin value (eg 50K would be 50%)

How many total videos on Joseph Anderson's Youtube Channel

Highest Number of Home Runs hit by a single player in 2025 MLB season

Age of Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025

How many countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

How many nuclear power plants operating in the USA

Number of Republican Senators

Latest ChatGPT version number released (eg 6.5 would be 65%)

How many new shows on Broadway in 2025

How many points the winning Superbowl team has

Last 2 digits of Minecraft Bedrock's most recent patch (eg 1.50.30 would be 30%)

Average of the Jersey numbers of the Cy Young award winner

How many US states have legalized recreational marijuana

How many points the losing Superbowl team has

How many SpaceX Launches in Dec of 2025

Number of anime profile pics in Manifold's top 100 traders

Jersey number of the Heisman trophy winner

Number of trillion dollar companies

Manifold's average MAU (eg 25k would be 25%)

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

Wikipedia

Amazon

Youtube

Baidu

Microsoft.com

Microsoft365

Microsoft Office

Google

Whatsapp

Linkedin

Pornhub

Reddit

Samsung Electronics

Weather Channel

Instagram

Netflix

Pinterest

Facebook

Tiktok

Microsoft Outlook

Discord

Telegram

Twitch

Microsoft Bing

DuckDuckGo

OpenAI

eBay

Roblox

Twitter

Yahoo

Zoom

Xvideos

Yahoo Japan

Zen News

xHamster

Naver

Bilibili

Turbo pages

Max

xHamster.desi

QQ

Globo

XNXX

Docomo

Yandex Search

VK

Fandom

Sharepoint

Mail.ru

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Eiffel Tower (France)

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

The Louvre (France)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

AT protocol (Bluesky)

ActivityPub (Mastodon)

Nostr

Other

Farcaster

Bluesky

Other, not launched before 2024

Hive (hive.blog)

Mana-channel (Manifold, if we ever do it)

cohost

Discord

Tumblr

Forums and/or BBSes make a huge comeback

Other, launched before 2024

RSS

NaV1.8

Bacterial Topoisomerase type II

L-type calcium-channel

GLP-1R

MEK1/2

TIGIT

KRAS G12D

PCSK9

BTK

CDK4/6

KRAS G12C

TSLP

IL-23

Factor XIa

JAK1

PI3K delta

SYK

TYK2

IL-1R

CD47

BCL-2

SARM1

CDK7

RIPK1

IL-33

CD19

PD-1/PD-L1

HIF-2α

She will release at least one book

She will run for political office in the next 2/3 years

Will she be involved in national media coverage or controversy within 12 months?

She will take Charlie’s place in public debates and public appearances.

BBC One

BBC Two

ITV

Channel 4

5/15 Phase 1: It will be "Me at the Zoo" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNQXAC9IVRw&vl=en

5/15 Phase 2: Watch it from start to finish once

5/16 Phase 2: Watch it from start to finish

5/16 Phase 2: Dislike it

5/16 Phase 1: It will be "The first video on YouTube..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSTE-SJjhnM&ab_channel=Beluga

5/17 Phase 1: Older than 2 years

5/17 Phase 1: >1M views

5/17 Phase 1: Contains 1 cat

5/17 Phase 1: It will be "If Elon Musk owned Discord...": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqhEFk-zdEU

[Placeholder]

5/17 Phase 2: Dislike it

5/17 Phase 2: Like it

5/15 Phase 2: Like it

5/15 Phase 2: Subscribe to its channel

5/15 Phase 2: Share it

5/15 Phase 2: Dislike it

5/16 Phase 1: It will be a meme compilation

5/16 Phase 1: Publish date will be from more than 10 years ago