OptionProbability
Claude enters Rock Tunnel, surpassing its progress in any previous run
Claude catches Clefairy
Claude obtains HM01 Cut by step 39000
Any member of Claude's team learns Dig
Claude obtains 3 gym badges by step 50000
Claude obtains a Bicycle
Claude 4 Opus is the model that plays the game (not Claude 4 Sonnet)
Claude obtains 1 gym badge by step 20000
Claude gives a thirsty guard a drink
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan
Lack of thinking text display is fixed before 5/22 6 PM Central Time
Claude adds 18 or more Pokemon to his Pokedex (surpassing his completion from the previous run)
Claude adds his starter to his party by step 400
Claude catches Nidoran
Claude reaches Pewter City by step 5000
Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 20000
Claude reaches Vermilion City by step 30000
Another model defeats the Champion before Claude (in a run started after Claude 4 was released)
Claude blacks out by step 50000.
Claude's current team has at least 3 Pokémon by step 30000.
Claude catches Spearow
Claude evolves SPIKE into Nidoking
Claude enters Mt. Moon by step 6000.
Claude defeats a Team Rocket member by step 7000
Claude catches Oddish
Manifest begins
Claude spends less than 72 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 72 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)
Claude defeats Lt. Surge by step 30000
Claude uses CUT on a cuttable tree for the first time more than 1000 steps after obtaining the HM
Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)
Claude obtains Farfetch'd
Claude catches Drowzee
Claude enters Rock Tunnel before step 40000
Another model beats the Champion (following criteria like https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/in-progress-will-an-llm-become-a-po)
Claude reaches Lavender Town
Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000
Claude obtains a Coin Case
Claude uses Dig on the SS Anne
Claude evolves luna into Clefable
SPIKE reaches level 25
Claude gets 4 gym badges
Claude renames a Pokémon
Claude obtains the Lift Key
Claude stands next to a sleeping Snorlax
Claude obtains HM02 Fly
Claude evolves wings into Fearow
Claude gambles in the Game Corner
Claude catches Weedle
Claude obtains Hitmonlee
Claude obtains the Silph Scope
Claude enters Erika's gym
Claude catches Pikachu
Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000
Claude obtains HM05 Flash
Claude misspells a Pokemon name
Changes are made to help Claude see cuttable trees
Claude obtains Dugtrio
Claude buys a Magikarp
Claude re-prompts the Rocket in Mt. Moon to try and give it the fossil
Claude releases any Pokemon
Claude enters Safari Zone
The Area Hints section of the prompt is changed during the run
Joe Biden dies
Claude beats Erika or obtains the Lift Key by step 200000
Claude catches any legendary Pokemon (Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Mewtwo)
Claude defeats the Champion
Claude 4 Opus is #1 in the chatbot arena leaderboard
Claude picks Charmander
Claude takes more than 2000 steps between arriving in Pewter city and entering Pewter gym
Claude picks Dome Fossil (again)
Claude spends less than 24 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 24 hr from first entrance to stepping onto Route 4)
Claude reaches Pewter City by step 3000
Claude has a party with 4 or more Pokemon when he first challenges Brock
Claude's starter is lower level than another party member by step 100000.
Claude has a full, six-member party before step 10000
Claude spends less than 48 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 48 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)
Claude blacks out 3 times in Mt. Moon before reaching Cerulean City
Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 12500
Claude's current team has at least 4 Pokémon by step 20000.
Claude's two highest level Pokémon are more than 30 levels apart by step 100000.
Claude is still stuck on the S.S. Anne on step 21000
Claude reaches Celadon City by step 35000
Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 23000
Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 24000
Claude reaches Lavender Town by step 42500
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
73
44
39
37
35
34
32
31
30
29
26
25
25
24
23
23
20
20
18
17
15
14
14
11
11
9
5
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Sylveon
Vaporeon
Other
Snorlax
Pikachu
Eevee
Charizard
Jigglypuff
Mewtwo
Gyarados
Ditto
Squirtle
Meowth
Psyduck
Mew
Gengar
Lucario
Muk
Giratina
Bulbasaur
Magikarp
Greninja
Mimikyu
Charmander
Togepi
Rayquaza
Lugia
Ho-Oh
Celebi
Machamp
Dragonite
Lapras
Onix
Clefairy
Ninetales
Growlithe
Pidgeot
Alakazam
Slowpoke
Sandslash
Cubone
Arcanine
Chansey
Rhydon
Blastoise
Venusaur
Pichu
Tyranitar
Aggron
Blaziken
Aegislash
Chandelure
12
11
9
6
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Nidoking
Other
Pikachu but in the fat older drawings where it's like chonky not the new slimmed down version
Gyarados
Giratina Origin Form
Sylveon
Lucario
Ampharos
Rayquaza
polywhirl
Charmander
Bulbasaur
Greninja
Mimikyu
Volcarona
27
27
14
10
4
4
4
3
3
3
1
0
0
0
0