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Prediction markets for Chat

Is Bing Chat conscious?

Mar 6, 10:53 AMDec 14, 11:59 PM

8.48%chance

708023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1572

904

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?

Apr 24, 3:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

375337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

511

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

224316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4653

215

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683871

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1479

938

YouTube Chat

Oct 26, 12:12 PMDec 31, 6:00 AM

60%chance

322280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

931

Will "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030?

Mar 27, 12:51 PMMar 27, 9:59 PM

43.34%chance

231610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

616

Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 24, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.57%chance

19613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

673

KingOfJonnyBoy Averge11 Chat Status First

Dec 17, 8:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6251

OptionProbability

Gets moderator/VIP

Gets banned

Other

38

33

28

Will Chat GPT 6 release before SSI releases their first model?

Jun 22, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.47%chance

10185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

233

172

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.06%chance

7158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

Will "What We Learned Trying to Diff Base and Chat ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.07%chance

324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

995

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