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Prediction markets for Chat

Is Bing Chat conscious?

Mar 6, 10:53 AMDec 14, 11:59 PM

9.1%chance

708124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

914

Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?

Apr 24, 3:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.48%chance

498045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3499

180

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683871

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1479

938

YouTube Chat

Oct 26, 12:12 PMDec 31, 6:00 AM

60%chance

322280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

931

Will "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030?

Mar 27, 12:51 PMMar 27, 9:59 PM

33.75%chance

241828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

488

Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 24, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.24%chance

271567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

591

DGG Chat Incel/Redpill Stock (Permanent)

Dec 11, 9:38 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

13679

OptionProbability

YES

NO

276

209

KingOfJonnyBoy Averge11 Chat Status First

Dec 17, 8:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6251

OptionProbability

Gets moderator/VIP

Gets banned

Other

38

33

28

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

May 15, 12:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

4148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

128

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will "What We Learned Trying to Diff Base and Chat ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.07%chance

324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

995

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