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Prediction markets for Chat

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Is Bing Chat conscious?

Mar 6, 10:53 AMDec 14, 11:59 PM

20.72%chance

686273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

643

Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?

Apr 24, 3:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.49%chance

294078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1431

606

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683871

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1479

938

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

5.48%chance

213816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

241

Will chatting with chatbots be seen as worse than video games for kids by 2026?

Apr 25, 3:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.9%chance

403188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1574

316

YouTube Chat

Oct 26, 12:12 PMDec 31, 6:00 AM

61.73%chance

302162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

902

Will "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030?

Mar 27, 12:51 PMMar 27, 9:59 PM

45.36%chance

211573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

645

Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 24, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.22%chance

16528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

895

AI voice chat servers before 2026?

May 13, 11:31 AMMar 8, 10:59 PM

82.67%chance

17351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

932

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will "What We Learned Trying to Diff Base and Chat ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.07%chance

324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

995

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