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Prediction markets for Chat

Is Bing Chat conscious?

Mar 6, 10:53 AMDec 14, 11:59 PM

8.48%chance

708023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1572

904

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?

Apr 24, 3:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

375337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

511

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683871

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1479

938

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

5.48%chance

213816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

241

YouTube Chat

Oct 26, 12:12 PMDec 31, 6:00 AM

60%chance

322280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

931

Will "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030?

Mar 27, 12:51 PMMar 27, 9:59 PM

43.45%chance

221608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

617

Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 24, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.17%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

793

Will Chat GPT 6 release before SSI releases their first model?

Jun 22, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.47%chance

10185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

233

172

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

May 15, 12:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

4148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

128

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will "What We Learned Trying to Diff Base and Chat ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.07%chance

324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

995

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