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Prediction markets for Chat

Is Bing Chat conscious?

Mar 6, 10:53 AMDec 14, 11:59 PM

12.36%chance

758847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

958

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683871

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1479

938

YouTube Chat

Oct 26, 12:12 PMDec 31, 6:00 AM

60%chance

322280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

931

Will "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030?

Mar 27, 12:51 PMMar 27, 9:59 PM

33.75%chance

241828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

488

Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 24, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.33%chance

281568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

590

Will Chat GPT 5 be able to create accurate instructions for an origami crane at least 50% of the time I ask it?

Mar 20, 6:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.27%chance

7307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

485

169

Did OpenAI "independently discover" php2shell by scanning chats of security researchers?

Oct 21, 4:06 PMFeb 24, 11:59 PM

8.86%chance

10267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.55%chance

7250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

29

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.7%chance

12143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will FACEIT keep Half Time Voice Chat?

Aug 5, 12:15 AMJan 1, 1:15 AM

46.56%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will "What We Learned Trying to Diff Base and Chat ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.07%chance

324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

995

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