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Prediction markets for Chat AI

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?

Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

251499

OptionProbability

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

51

43

31

0

0

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

67.74%chance

10925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

875

Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?

May 8, 5:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.06%chance

17831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

394

25

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.16%chance

9722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.55%chance

7250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

29

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

May 15, 12:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

4148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

128

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.7%chance

12143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

High quality unlimited duration AI voice chat that can call servers when?

Dec 11, 9:56 AMDec 11, 9:39 AM

5135

OptionProbability

2028 first half

2027 second half

2026 second half

2027 first half

2028 second half

2029 first half

2029 second half

2030 first half

2030 second half

2031 first half

2031 second half

2032 first half

Other

2026 first half

12

11

10

10

8

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

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