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Prediction markets for Chat AI

When will Deepseek V4 be released?

Mar 25, 12:16 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

5025547

OptionProbability

March-April 2026

May-June 2026

July 2026 or later (never)

January-February 2026

March-April 2025

May-June 2025

July-August 2025

September-October 2025

November-December 2025

78

18

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?

Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

241409

OptionProbability

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

55

47

35

0

0

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

66.73%chance

8865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

837

647

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.89%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

7200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.06%chance

7158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

May 15, 12:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

4148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

128

High quality unlimited duration AI voice chat that can call servers when?

Dec 11, 9:56 AMDec 11, 9:39 AM

3120

OptionProbability

2027 first half

2026 second half

2027 second half

2028 first half

2028 second half

2029 first half

2029 second half

2030 first half

2030 second half

2031 first half

2031 second half

2032 first half

Other

2026 first half

11

10

10

10

8

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?

Mar 11, 12:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.7%chance

3115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

65

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

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