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Prediction markets for Chat Completions

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Oct 23, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.46%chance

120147866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5487

377

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will "Will 'jailbreaks' in LLMs be solved in principle by the end of 2024" resolve YES AND turn out wrong in 2026?

Jun 11, 8:05 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

4.93%chance

3342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

23

What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2030?

Mar 9, 5:29 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8289

OptionProbability

General intelligence/agent

Other

Chat

Warfare

Multimodal/task agnostic

Coding

Robots

Scientific discovery

39

15

14

10

10

9

2

1

What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?

Mar 9, 5:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4135

OptionProbability

General intelligence/agent

Other

Multimodal/task agnostic

Chat

Coding

Scientific discovery

Robotics/physical tasks

Humans

Electronics manufacture

Robotics

Warfare tools

32

25

16

15

7

3

2

0

0

0

0

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

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