Chat GPT News

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

this market reaches 100 traders

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

Saw XI Releases in USA

alan greenspan passes away

coup in an african country

noam chomsky passes away

chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

another trump assassination attempt

this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

discord IPO happens

2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

zootopia 2 releases

Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

First game of the MLB World Series starts

manifold raises more money

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

MLB rookie of the year announced

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

stripe ipo happens

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Cy Young award winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

trump removes a cabinet member

Skate 4 releases

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

windows 12 announcement is made

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

trump starts mass deportations

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

grok4 release date

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

the third Pacific hurricane of the season

28 years Later releases in USA

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

chime IPO happens

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

First Apple Event of the year

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

manifest 2025 ends

Manifest 2025 starts

Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

Llama 4 released to the general userbase

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

south korean president removed from power

the first Solar eclipse of the year

First Nintendo direct of the year

trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

grok 3 release date

nintendo switch successor announced officially

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

doomsday clock announcement

USA President issues 10th executive order

USA President issues 1st executive order

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

No humans on the moon since Apollo

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

True Detective Season 5 released

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Xi still leader of China

Putin still leader of Russia

Charles still King of UK

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

Family Guy has ended

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Taylor Swift has been married

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

1200 or more official pokemon

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

Taylor Swift has been divorced

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

China has landed a human on the moon

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

Sweden joins NATO

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube

Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Super Bowl LIX kickoff

Sailing skill releases for runescape

Hollow Knight Silksong released

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

Death Stranding 2 out

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

King Charles no longer king of UK

5th bitcoin halving

Windows 12 released

Haunted Chocolatier releases

twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users

Taylor Swift engaged

manifold reaches 4000 engaged users

someone reaches 10B profit on manifold

Chat gpt 6 releases

Star Citizen releases

Taylor Swift married

a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time

Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)

6th bitcoin halving

Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens

ukraine joins nato

assange extradited to usa

LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal

Death Stranding 2 releases

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold

Bitcoin reaches $100K

nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple

Jimmy Carter dies

Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard

Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election

Manifest 2025 ends

GTA 6 is released

windows 12 released by microsoft

Joe Biden dies

Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine

king charles no longer king of uk

Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer

Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public

Official sub 2:00 marathon

chat gpt 6 released

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means

Vladimir Putin dies

Lex Fridman interviews Putin

Human steps foot on the moon again

Moldova joins NATO

Kingdom Hearts 4 released

Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time

Credible reports of AGI

Woman becomes President of the United States

Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)

One Piece manga final chapter and series ends

Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M

George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )

Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison

China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan

Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess

Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)

The United States leaves NATO

assange extradited to usa

Large Tech company announces layoffs

Pope Francis dies

New Pope

Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)

Nintendo Direct airs

bitcoin reaches a new all time high

joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video

new iphone releases

elon musk has another child

Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude

A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding

gpt 5 released

Dutch coalition resigns

hollow knight silksong releases

Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time

Skate 4 Release

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)

spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025

White House goes under lockdown for any period of time

New CEO of Twitter

any country starts a new invasion of another country

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)

MLB World Series won by the National League team

MLB World Series won by the American League team

official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice

Assassination of an African head of state

Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers

Imu face reveal in One Piece

Starliner program terminated

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire

Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)

Assassination of a North American or South American head of state

Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce

grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa

Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table

Trump threatens to deport Musk

Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19

chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods

Russia : Ukraine ceasefire

Joe Biden dies

Bitcoin hits $200k USD

23andMe goes private

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%

H5N1 pandemic declared

tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized

The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series

USA government shutdown

nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)

commercial airline hijacking

destiny talks to joe rogan

Assassination of a European or Asian head of state

Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***

Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023

Donald Trump dies

Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers

North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

AI wipes out humanity

Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ

bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less

Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens

Vladimir Putin dies

Chat GPT 6 releases

Spider Man beyond the Spiderverse releases after the delay from March 2024

LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype

linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES

YES