Chat GPT News

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Taylor Swift has been married

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

True Detective Season 5 released

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

1200 or more official pokemon

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

Taylor Swift has been divorced

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

China has landed a human on the moon

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

Taylor Swift married

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Sailing skill releases for Runescape (Old School)

chat gpt 5 releases

Donald Trump OR Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Imu Face Reveal

bitcoin reaches $80k usd on google

Bitcoin reaches $70k USD on google

the end of 2024

the end of 2025

Ides of March 2025

Jimmy Carter passes away or is murdered

Bitcoin reaches 100k usd

Chapter 1200 comes out and he still has not found the one piece

Pluton revealed or used or production started

ChatGPT 6 released

Gta 6 comes out

manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

King Charles no longer king of UK

arlong is seen again in the manga

Sanji finds all blue

Officially supported Netflix app for Apple vision pro

OnePieceExplained reaches 50k subscribers https://www.youtube.com/@onepieceexplained

Noam chomsky passes away

kaidou is seen again in the manga

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

one of the straw hats dies

UFC 350 takes place

Datura Lacroye releases 3 original albums and 3 cover albums

Juice wrld's the party never ends will drop

nuclear detonation or test happens (jan 2024 onward)

dragon ball super manga ends

Manifold user charts on the Billboard 200

ukraine joins EU

manifold reaches 3000 engaged users

donald trump spends a day in prison

human sets foot on moon again

Pigs Fly

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

ukraine joins NATO

hunter biden serves a day in jail

Destiny retires from streaming

6th bitcoin halving

Windows 12 end of life date

someone reaches 1B in mana profit on Manifold

Singularity happens

Buggy the clown dies

Taylor Swift engaged

Taylor Swift married

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Hollow Knight Silksong released

Sailing skill releases for runescape

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

Chat gpt 6 releases

twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users

Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube

Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Super Bowl LIX kickoff

King Charles no longer king of UK

Windows 12 released

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

5th bitcoin halving

Haunted Chocolatier releases

manifold reaches 4000 engaged users

Star Citizen releases

someone reaches 10B profit on manifold

a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time

Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)

6th bitcoin halving

Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens

ukraine joins nato

assange extradited to usa

LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal

Death Stranding 2 releases

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold

Bitcoin reaches $100K

nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple

Jimmy Carter dies

Official sub 2:00 marathon

Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard

Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election

Manifest 2025 ends

GTA 6 is released

windows 12 released by microsoft

Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine

king charles no longer king of uk

Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer

Joe Biden dies

Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public

chat gpt 6 released

Human steps foot on the moon again

Vladimir Putin dies

Lex Fridman interviews Putin

Moldova joins NATO

Kingdom Hearts 4 released

Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time

Credible reports of AGI

Woman becomes President of the United States

Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)

One Piece manga final chapter and series ends

Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M

George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )

Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means

China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan

Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess

The United States leaves NATO

Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)

assange extradited to usa

100th spacex launch of the year

Coyote vs Acme releases

Manifest 2026 happens

new apple iphone releases

taylor swift married

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

SpaceX IPOs

2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken

USA Government has a shutdown

Imu face reveal in One Piece

Chat GPT 6 releases

Twitter/x releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Nioh 3 releases

trump removes a cabinet member

alan greenspan passes away

Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)

Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

Twitter gets a new CEO

twitter x mail releases

grok 5 releases

Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO

Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO

noam chomsky passes away

New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)

ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

stripe ipo happens

Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

windows 12 announcement is made

discord IPOs

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

A commercial airline hijacking

Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views

Haunted Chocolatier releases

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

Saw XI Releases in USA

Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more

grok 6 releases

Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more

human steps on moon again

grok 6 release date

fable (2026) releases

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

Saw XI Releases in USA

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

trump dies

stripe ipo happens

Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more

biden dies

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

polymarket or kalshi ipo

windows 12 announcement is made

Netanyahu out as PM of israel

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory

Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card

putin or zelensky lose power

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

yoko ono passes away

noam chomsky passes away

commercial airline hijacked

discord IPO happens

haunted chocolatier release date known

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

apple announces a touchscreen laptop

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)

llama 5 release date

playstation 6 announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

manifold raises more money

tropico 7 releases

twitter/x releases x mail to some users

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Third dune movie officially announced

beyonce releases an album

playboi carti releases an album

apple announces a smart ring

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Cy Young award winner announced

coup in an african country

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

fourth Knives Out movie announced

anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse

new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)

Third dune movie releases

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

grok 5 release date

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

First game of the MLB World Series starts

nobel peace prize winner announced

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

iphone fold release date known

Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

the first Solar eclipse of the year

Patriot Games ending day

Patriot Games starting day

someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

fifa world cup - last game ends

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

Taylor swift gets married

ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda

English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

Kier Starmer out

alan greenspan passes away

Manifest 2026 starts

spacex IPO happens

drake releases an album

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

another trump assassination attempt

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

artemis II mission launches

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

new iphone releases (in the USA)

trump removes a cabinet member

First Apple Event of the year

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

manifold launches real money trading

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)

First Nintendo direct of the year

Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

Imu face reveal in One Piece

Chat GPT 6 releases

GTA VI Release

GOP loses control of the House

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)

New FKT record for the Appalachian Trail

there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice

Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

MLB World Series won by the National League team

Assassination of an African head of state

Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)

Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude

grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa

Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)

bitcoin reaches a new all time high

Assassination of a European or Asian head of state

Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce

North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

Russia : Ukraine ceasefire

Joe Biden dies

commercial airline hijacking

H5N1 pandemic declared

pope leo dies

Donald Trump dies

Vladimir Putin dies

One Piece has ended

Putin no longer leader of Russia

Hasanabi retires from livestreaming

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

China-Taiwan conflict fully starts

MikeFromPA retires from livestreaming

Ukraine-Russia conflict is resolved

1500 or more official pokemon

Vaush retires from livestreaming

August retires / fired / is replaced as lead editor

Destiny dies

He gets married again

pickleball in the olympics

ukraine joins nato

Plays Rust on stream again

Human walks on the Moon again

Human walks on Mars

He has another child (or adopts one)

Streams on Twitch again

Chat GPT 8 has released

American elects its 50th president (with Biden being #46, no Cleveland-conscious counting)

Talks to a retired president

Playstation 7 has released

Bitcoin reaches $200K at least one time

Talks to a sitting president while they are serving in office

Someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

Israel-Palestine conflict is resolved

NO

NO

YES

YES