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Prediction markets for Chatbot Arena

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.73%chance

78970558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200868

63036

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Mar 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

163192242

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

Other

Mistral

Meta

79

11

6

2

2

0

0

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

112114792

OptionProbability

Google

xAI

OpenAI

None listed here

Anthropic

Meta

79

10

4

3

2

1

Which company has best AI model end of 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Aug 8, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9686838

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Moonshot AI

Other

72

21

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

Gemini 3.0 scores 1500+ on Chatbot Arena in 2025? (Without Style Control)

Nov 15, 4:53 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

6.23%chance

7326147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3881

258

Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 1:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.08%chance

4121750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7024

167

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2310079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.54%chance

579572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4586

218

any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/ reaches an Arena Score of at least 1520.0 (≥1520)

Nov 23, 4:04 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23.53%chance

228286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

555

Non-style controlled Arena Score removed from the Chatbot Arena before 2026? [lmarena.ai]

May 29, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.92%chance

25020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5771

173

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

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