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Prediction markets for Chatbot Arena

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 16, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76166221

OptionProbability

OpenAI

xAI

Alphabet / Google

OpenAI (after January)

OpenAI (after February)

Google (after February)

xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)

Google (after 2.5 release)

OpenAI (May or later)

DeepSeek

Moonshot

Anthropic

xAI (April or later)

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Meta

Microsoft (?)

Apple (?)

Mistral

Reka AI

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

93

89

12

9

8

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 1, 5:31 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

101129780

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

xAI

Anthropic

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

62

35

2

0

0

0

0

0

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9889403

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

None listed here

Meta

38

29

12

10

9

3

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Mar 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12278731

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Other

Anthropic

Meta

Mistral

41

29

10

10

8

1

0

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.35%chance

3947145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118404

88423

Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 1:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

4115184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6080

190

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2310079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

14.01%chance

505725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2478

404

Which company has best AI model end of September? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 4, 5:01 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

343694

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

xAI

Anthropic

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

52

33

4

2

2

2

2

2

Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?

Mar 29, 12:31 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

74.34%chance

223032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

699

Non-style controlled Arena Score removed from the Chatbot Arena before 2026? [lmarena.ai]

May 29, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.55%chance

22520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3271

306

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