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Prediction markets for ChatGPT Agent

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

45.1%chance

295557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

906

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

94.68%chance

173443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4220

237

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

ChatGPT's tariff formula the first ASI attack?

Apr 6, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.24%chance

131140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

547

18

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Which one will end up being my favorite, Claude Max or ChatGPT Pro?

Dec 3, 8:48 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

2180

OptionProbability

Claude Max

ChatGPT Pro

51

49

When will OpenAI’s Operator be available to Plus users?

Feb 1, 3:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6179

OptionProbability

May 2025

Other

April 2025

March 2025

June 2025

July 2025

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

21

18

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

Jul 26, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2174

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2025

41

10

10

10

10

10

9

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