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Prediction markets for ChatGPT Agent

Will Musk pay the salaries of TSA agents during shutdown?

Mar 23, 11:26 AMMay 22, 11:20 AM

1.99%chance

559430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7019

142

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.34%chance

162491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2413

414

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

Jul 26, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21754

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2025

61

8

8

8

8

7

1

ChatGPT's tariff formula the first ASI attack?

Apr 6, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.24%chance

131140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

547

18

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in May 2026?

Apr 3, 9:37 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

10380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

191

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