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Prediction markets for ChatGPT Business

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

185843

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

83

10

3

1

1

1

1

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.22%chance

455455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3539

2437

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will I find customer help chatbots infuriating in these years?

Jan 14, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6122

OptionProbability

2024

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

80

54

50

50

50

48

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

438

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

34

32

11

11

11

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.14%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

98

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