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Prediction markets for ChatGPT Business

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.15%chance

8314198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6271

1868

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

206467

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

84

9

3

1

1

1

1

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

410

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.28%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

7302

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

88

8

4

Will I find customer help chatbots infuriating in these years?

Jan 14, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6122

OptionProbability

2024

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

80

54

50

50

50

48

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

562

OptionProbability

Perplexity

xAI

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

38

28

19

7

7

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